LIGHT oil production is already in decline, except in the reserve-rich Middle East, forcing consumer nations to utilise unconventional resources such as heavy oil, sour crudes and natural gas liquids. Geological constraints, although not the only reason, seem to have affected production levels in most of the main basins outside Opec, providing little comfort to those who hope a supply crunch can be averted.
Analysts at Barclays believe that mature basins outside Opec will be the biggest cause of a supply crunch: “One of the key dynamics of non-Opec supply in recent years has been its ability to massively disappoint,” Barclays says. “We believe that the main culprit is the dynamics of mature production, and this year it has been most evident in Mexico and Norway.”
The US has been in decline since the early 1970s, despite new output from Alaska and recent deepwater projects in the Gulf of Mexico.
In Latin America, only Brazil can boast rising oil production, mainly due to its long term investments in exploration and development of deepwater fields. Mexico remains a strong oil producer, thanks to its giant Cantarell complex and the new Ku-Maloob-Zaap project, but its own growing domestic demand means exports are shrinking. There could be huge reserves of hydrocarbons in Mexico’s deeper waters, but it will take around seven to 10 years to explore, discover and develop these resources. Venezuela, which is an aggressive member and co-founder of Opec, continues to develop its own heavy oil Orinoco complex, but this does not improve the tight supply of light oils.
EDIT
http://lloydslist.com/ll/news/viewArticle.htm?articleId=1183553738589