China Seeks 30% Increase In Saudi Oil Shipments - Guardian

BEIJING, Nov 9 (Reuters) - China has asked for a 30 percent increase in crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia for 2008 and also aims to raise imports from Iran, partly to feed two new refineries amid steady demand growth, trading sources said on Friday.

Sinopec Corp, Asia's top refiner, wants to increase Saudi crude imports to 600,000 barrels per day for next year, up from this year's 460,000 bpd, a trading source close to the supply talks told Reuters.

The supply pact, pending Saudi confirmation, would foster closer energy ties between Beijing and Riyadh, while maintaining the kingdom as China's top oil supplier. China is keen to secure more long-term fuel supplies while the Saudis are building a refinery in China and looking to invest in a second one.

"(The increase) is to supply the two new refineries," said the trading source, referring to a 240,000 barrel per day Fujian refinery in the southeast coast in which state-run Saudi Aramco owns 25 percent, and a 200,000 bpd plant in Shandong province designed to process Saudi oil. Both refineries are due for completion next year. China, the world's second-largest oil user, also appeared unfazed by growing political tensions over Tehran's nuclear programme and wants to raise imports of Iranian oil further next year, after a 17 percent rise in the first nine months of this year.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7063791

foreign cars and refuse to buy goods made in China.

And it would happen pretty fast, too. If Chinese goods stopped selling here in America, their income would shut down pretty fast, then they wouldn't need so much oil.

There is some hint that the latest collapse in the US dollar is the result of Chinese actions with their foreign currency reserves. Basically they seem to be moving to the Euro. That move will depress the value of the US dollar and raise the value of the Euro. That in turn will shift the market for Chinese good more towards Europe and away from the USA. The USA will be buying fewer Chinese goods, all right, but that's not likely to stand in the way of Chinese growth - they'll just sell more to Europe.

In fact, if the analysis I present here is correct (look here for the background to that table), by 2050 China will have the largest GDP on the planet, over 10% larger than that of the USA.

THe tables provide an incredible snapshot of present realities. I'm not sure I agree with your population projections for the developed nations. I think immigration is likely to change those numbers some. Do you make any allowance for the effect of the three horsemen? War, famine and pestilence are likely to find new opportunities as resource depletion and climate change really begin to bite.

They haven't been adjusted by any of the factors you mention, yet. This is an ongoing piece of analysis, and I wanted to set up a baseline that would be hard to object to, thus my choice of the UN's Medium Fertility numbers.

As I go on, I'll be introducing fertilizer costs, geopolitical events and the effects of ecological collapse into the population picture, each in its own chapter. I hope when it's all done that the chains of cause and effect will be solid enough that the whole analysis will provide a believable scenario for the next 40 or 50 years.

if peak oil hits and the effects become catastrophic as your site implies, wouldn't that cause the birth rate to plummet and the death rate to soar? It's fairly obvious there would be a crisis like the one Russia went through 15 years ago, and they still haven't recovered from their declining population. So wouldn't the UN population projections be revised downwards dramatically?

I'll be going further into that possibility as I develop my series of articles. I've been a long-time believer in the probability of a human die-off in this century. For this series, though, I've backed up to start from a baseline consisting of a set of commonly accepted assumptions. I expect that a bit of serious analysis will demonstrate those assumptions to be grievously flawed.