August 2004 ASPO Newsletter Now Available

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391 Heavy oil of CanadaWalter Youngquist, author of Geodestinies, comments as follows (slightly edited)Shell has essentially given up on conventional oil and gas exploration in Canada, knowing it to be a markedly declining situation. There are just not many good prospects left. Oil sands are a sure thing, which will allow Shell to survive in Canada in some form for a long time to come, although as a shadow of its former self.The same thing goes for Imperial Oil (an ExxonMobil Subsidiary). It is buying back its own stock which helps per share earnings even as basic income goes down. It, like Shell, is already concentrating on the oil sands, having a 25% stake in Syncrude, the largest Operator. It too will survive as an oil company, but based on oil sand operations.How far this game can be pushed and how many can get into it is the question for there are two physical limitations.

One is water supply, and the other is the energy needed to produce the oil sands. Now they use natural gas, but that is declining, and will have been exhausted long before the oil sands. So what will they do then?Perhaps they can be self-sustaining, by consuming some of their product to supply the needed energy. This would show what the real net energy recovery for the oil sand is. Equating a barrel of oil sand oil with conventional oil, where the net energy yield is high is not a valid thing to do. This throws into doubt the decision by the Oil & Gas Journal to start including oil from the Athabaska tarsands in its global compilation of conventional oil.

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400. The Wolf at the DoorActions sometimes speak louder than words. Mr Maugeri, the Chief Economist of the Italian oil group ENI, recently wrote a scathing article in Science, dismissing warnings of depletion as “Crying Wolf”. This week his company announced that it was closing its North Sea office in Scotland, making a large number of its staff redundant. Its operating company Agip was known for its high technical and managerial performance, so it was certainly capable of developing any remaining reserves in the North Sea. The obvious conclusion is that it sees that the North Sea is heavily depleted and that no amount of skill and expertise can change that situation. Nota bene Leonardo : the Wolf really is at the door. (Information furnished by Douglas Low)

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http://www.peakoil.net/Newsletter/NL44/newsletter44.pdf

have seen the writing on the wall at least a few years ago. My new pet conspiracy theory is that Peak Oil was the major topic of discussion at the Big Secret Cheney Energy Task Force Meetings of 2001. And it's why they've been stonewalling every inquiry into those meetings ever since. Furthermore, it's the reason for invading Iraq. They are preparing for the age of declining oil reserves.

in the tar sands area were considering the construction of a Canadian CANDU nuclear reactor up there to provide steam for extraction and power for the refinery. The talk seems to have died out.