German Energy Firm Predicts $200 Oil Within Ten Years - Financial Times Deutschland

Das Deutsche Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) erwartet eine Verdopplung des Ölpreises binnen zehn Jahren. Der Grund dafür wird allerdings ein anderer sein als die derzeitigen Spekulationen, die den Ölpreis auf 100 $ gehievt hatten.

"Die Ölvorräte werden zunehmend knapp und das wird die Preise weiter hochtreiben", sagte Claudia Kemfert vom DIW der "Berliner Zeitung". "In fünf Jahren ist ein Ölpreis von 150 $ je Barrel denkbar, in zehn Jahren sogar ein Preis von 200 $." Am Mittwoch hatte der Ölpreis in den USA erstmals die Marke von 100 $ je Barrel überschritten.

Der jüngste Preisanstieg sei allerdings zu großen Teilen spekulationsbedingt: "Der Anteil am Ölpreis, der auf Spekulation zurückzuführen ist, dürfte etwa 20 Prozent betragen", sagte Kemfert. "Eine Entspannung beim Ölpreis ist in den nächsten Wochen deshalb nicht zu erwarten. Ich rechne kurzfristig sogar eher mit einem weiteren Anstieg bis auf 105 $." Frühestens Ende Januar, wenn die Nachfrage nach Heizöl allmählich nachlasse, sei eine Stabilisierung oder ein Rückgang des Ölpreises vorstellbar. Bereits im vergangenen Jahr hatte sich Öl um mehr als die Hälfte verteuert.

EDIT

http://ftd.de/politik/international/:DIW%20%D6lpreis%20Dollar/298590.html

Partial Translation, paragraphs 2 & 3 above:

"Oil reserves will be increasingly scarce which will drive prices further up", said DIW energy expert Claudia Kemfert to the German newspaper Berliner Zeitung. "In five years an oil price of $150 per barrel is possible, in ten years even a price of $200." According to the DIW the recent price rise is due however in large part to speculation: "The portion of the oil price which is to due to speculation, might amount to about 20 per cent", said Kemfert. "Therefore a price drop is not expected within the next few weeks. I rather anticipate a further rise up to $105." She expects a conceivable stabilization or decrease of the oil price not before the end of January, when the demand for fuel oil diminishes.

An even stronger rise of oil prices was estimated by most readers of this news in the online edition of Financial Times Deutschland (www.ftd.de), who participated at its online enquiry (not statistically representative): At noontime (CET) about 40 percent expected the 2018 oil price to have hit $400, whereas 35 percent agree with the DIW, and only 12% expect it at $100 or $75 respectively.

EDIT

http://www.energybulletin.net/38806.html

:evilgrin:

...but will take ten times longer to double again? I doubt it. $200 oil by the end of 2008 is my prediction.

Also, if the Bushies somehow allow a Democrat to be "elected" in 2008, the resultant brief respite of Bushie Tyranny and Vampirism will likely stem the dollar's downward sprial.

Too many variables and like most human endeavors, the Fall of the American Republic will likely not proceed in a straight line.

You may be right, but I think it could take as many as 10 years if a Democrat is allowed to be placed on the Imperial Throne of Amerika.

one way or the other were going to be driving all electric or plug-in hybrids with or without legislation mandating higher mileage....

You mean I will finally be able to sell a horse or two. Just call, I will make you a heck of a deal.

and burning furniture for heat.

hell I could predict the same thing and get this guys pay check, jeeeez.

I'm thinking more like $150 by the end of this year and $200 by 2010.

There will be a minor drop after a dem gets in but realistically, the only way oil will drop when people stop using it. Which will probably happen when it becomes so costly that people have turned to other means to move around (walking, biking...ox cart).

At which point, what ever is left and if the means to still extract it are still maintained (it takes oil to make replacement parts, remember?) will be used for either emergency vehicles or industrial use.

Like I said in another post, if we are to survive peak oil we need to come up with alternatives, not for fuel, but for lubricants and a way to smelt metal without oil or coal. Remove one or both of these methods from society and you go back to the bronze age overnight.

> Remove one or both of these methods from society and you go back
> to the bronze age overnight.

... except that, this time around, there is no bronze ...
All of the easy to get minerals have been mined out so it will be a bit
tougher on this cycle.

:-(