Science Magazine: We are turning the West into a desert

A major new study in Science by a dozen water experts, concluded humans are the primary cause of changes in Western river flow, winter air temperature and snow pack in the past 50 years — and things will only get worse if we don’t act soon. The abstract of the study, “Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States” (subs. req’d), led by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, states:

Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high-resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate-related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human-induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.

The study’s conclusion is stark:


Our results are not good news for those living in the western United States. The scenario for how western hydrology will continue to change has already been published using one of the models used here as well as in other recent studies of western U.S. hydrology. It foretells water shortages, lack of storage capability to meet seasonally changing river flow, transfers of water from agriculture to urban uses, and other critical impacts. Because PCM performs so well in replicating the complex signals of the last half of the 20th century, we have every reason to believe its projections and to act on them in the immediate future.

http://climateprogress.org/2008/02/22/science-we-are-turning-the-west-into-a-desert/

Visiting central Colorado as a kid reinforced the same impression on me.

20 years later driving into a Texas A&M Field Station out on the Llano west of Junction, I was shocked that what I thought was a gravel parking lot was actually sheep & goat pasture.

Water is a big deal. Old story to which few have paid attention.

could start the correction of this problem. the politicians are more concerned about the war on terrorism/iraq than to deal with the real threat to this country

and the more I read, the more I wonder if it is not the most immediate and critical environmental problem we face.

Since I'm rather new to the water topic, many of you are surely more knowledgeable than I am. Would you share a few thoughts on the matter, and also recommend any solid books/articles?

Not what you would call light reading but some good history.

I'm looking for more recent studies, and I don't even know if they exist, that examine options for dealing with water shortages if we don't start getting a helluvalot more precip filling up aquifers and reservoirs. I'd also like to see some figures about much water in the west is diverted to bio-fuels agriculture. (I've heard that it's caused some problems in Colorado.)

I've read about desalination, but it's really energy intensive and polluting.

I'm in Texas, where periodic drought brings on some lawn-watering restrictions, but rarely anything more drastic. Dallas and San Antonio both seem to have too many people for their supplies, but in Austin I seldom hear anything that urges the public toward household conservation.

Here's a sustainable technology that has great promise in lesser developed countries: http://www.watercone.com/product.html



Of course, it can't create the volumes that Americans are used to wasting.

our reservoirs are way down. Most of those are in Wyoming and catch the snow run off. The problem is the snow is melting to early due to warmer temps. Ditch irrigation this summer will not last the season. There is a moratorium on drilling irrigation wells but due to the shortage of snow/rain the water table has dropped in the Oglala aquifer and many of the pivots are running dry because the wells cannot refill fast enough. This is the second year we have planted winter wheat and 10% came up due to no water/rain. Corn that looked good in the fields last fall turned out less than anticipated. Farming is not looking good around here.This North Platte River valley was not a desert before but maybe soon.

and trying to put myself in your shoes, which is damn hard since I'm an urbanite.

But I think if I were in your situation, I'd be 1) scared; 2) sad; and 3) frustrated as hell.

Since Nebraska rarely makes news where I am, please tell me a little about what, if any, plans are being floated to "fix" things. Is a switch to more drought-resistant GM seed an option, or does it look like you'll have to stop growing corn and wheat entirely?
Sorry that I know so little about farming there, but I'd like to know a little more if you have the time.

Thanks for posting, and welcome to DU, by the way.

:hi:

I don't see how that necessarily helps solve anything.

... on the ticket in November. I was referring to Richardson.

Claiming that Wisconsin is "awash with water" and may have to share in referencing how New Mexico and the rest of the desert Southwest might have to deal with water shortages doesn't put him at the top of my list. There was a similar outburst made several years back by a Los Angeles official (Board of Supervisors?): that the "excess" water in the Snake River might have to be piped into the LA basin. Leaving aside the issues of what constitutes true "awash-ness" and the legal ownership of water resources, the energy required to pump large quantities of water a thousand or more miles makes the idea a non-starter.

That's why a 10th of an inch of rain floods our streets and ties up traffic for hours!