Revenge Of The Nerdmobile - LA Times

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"Shelton's not the only one. Once the exclusive object of desire for a tiny niche of techno-geeks and tree-huggers, hybrids have percolated into the mainstream and emerged as legitimate alternatives to traditional gasoline-powered vehicles. As recently as two years ago, they were mostly hype. Last year, they became marginally hip, thanks to all of the A-list celebrities who drove them ostentatiously to Oscar galas and other high-profile events. Now, to the amazement of just about everybody in the automobile industry, they're scorching hot.

The Toyota Prius, with its friendly and distinctive dashboard "Power" button, is the poster child for the hybrid car movement. Despite awkward styling and sluggish performance, the current model is so popular that it commands a premium of as much as $6,000 over the sticker price—if you can lay your hands on one. At most dealerships, the waiting list is three to six months. The original American allocation of 36,000 cars for 2004 has been increased to 47,000, and even that won't come close to curing Prius envy.

"Our dealers tell us that they can sell double what we have today," says Ed LaRocque, national manager of advanced technology vehicles for Toyota Motors Sales, U.S.A. Toyota announced earlier this month that it aims to build 180,000 Priuses for worldwide sales next year, a 50% boost over 2004 production, and is studying possible U.S. production of the fuel-efficient cars.

LaRocque expects sales of the Prius, Honda Insight and hybrid versions of the Honda Civic and Ford Escape to hit 88,000 units this year. Next year, he's forecasting sales of 196,000 hybrids as buyers can choose from more than a dozen models ranging from ho-hum family sedans to spiffy sport-utes to honking full-size pickup trucks. By 2006, if product announcements are to be believed, there should be 20 different hybrids in U.S. showrooms. "Our forecast calls for as many as half a million hybrids to be sold in 2007," says Walter McManus, executive director for forecasting and analysis at J.D. Power and Associates. "After that, it could go up to a million by 2011. That's out of 17 million vehicles total, so we don't see hybrids, per se, ever being more than a niche vehicle. But being a niche vehicle doesn't mean it's not successful."

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...everybody in the *American* autombobile industry.

It's hard for me to respect the opinion of an author who apparently thinks that hybrids don't run on gasoline.

And I'd say that Mr. Walter McManus has his head stuck in the 1950s, if he thinks hybrids are going to be niche vehicles forever.

These people really must all believe that oil is going to be cheap forever, and CO2 is inconsequential. It's the only thing that explains the idiotic stuff that comes out of their mouths.

They are compact sedans, and if you saw one on the street, you wouldn't look twice at it.

It's amazing how deeply-seated the media narrative of "conservation is for nerds and tree-huggers" has become. These people can't write a story without framing it that way, regardless of how incorrect or irrelevent it is.

I think that's where the nerd-mobile image comes from. It was (and still is) a science project on wheels. Poor handling hard compound tires, no room for luggage or more than 1 passenger, etc. The thing was built for a single purpose - fuel economy, at the expense of real world usefulness. I think it is pretty cool and I'd like to have one, but then some people consider me a nerd, too.

But yeah, the Insight has George Jetsons's name all over it. I think it was Honda's way of extended IMA testing w/o too much initial, plus great PR value for them.

Why does everyone here seem to despise SUVs but not mini-vans? The term "mini-van" has become an oxymoron. Try finding one with a curb weight under 2 tons these days. Gone are the days of reasonably compact Chrysler/Plymouth mini-vans with 4 cylinder engines that got reasonable fuel economy. I'd venture to say tht many of the smaller SUVs compare favorably in fuel economy terms to the bloated, option laden "mini-vans" that are available these days. Why don't they get the same contempt?

I've been comparing station wagons against minivans. The Sienna and Odyssey get on the order of 20/26.

That's nothin to write home about, but it's significantly better than typical large SUVs, which get on the order of 12/18

I'd be shocked if anyone could actually achieve those EPA ratings. You would have to treat the gas pedal like an egg!

I'd go for the wagon. Audi, BMW, Volvo, and Mazda are making some sweet little sportwagons these days, with a much higher cool factor than any minivan. They're comparable in price to a loaded minivan. (notice there's no American equivalent?) The wagons cannot swallow the same amount of cargo, though.

Another hog that seems to pass under the radar: pickup trucks. How many people do you see driving these 1/2 ton crew cab trucks with a 5 foot bed? Basically useless for serious hauling. How have we gotten to the point where pickups have become lifestyle accessories for people who want to have a certain "look"?

Some of them get decent mileage, and they've got decent cargo capacity. Better than my compact sedan, anyway. My scheme is to augment that with my cargo-pod, when necessary.

I think there are VW TDI passat wagons, that'll get 30/38.

You may not get 22/26 out of a minivan, on the other hand you aren't going to get 12/18 out of an SUV, either.

I tend to treat the mileage ratings as good for comparison, since they are all optimistic by roughly the same amount.

This is HIGHER than the EPA rating.

I don't do anything special except keep the tires inflated and use the cruise control as much as possible. I also stagger my (long) hours, so as not to be stuck in traffic.

At home, when running short errands, I either ride a bicycle (infinite miles per gallon) or walk (also infinite miles per gallon.)

As soon as I can manage to buy one though, I'm going hybrid. I note that with oil prices rising (thankfully, not a bit too soon) biodiesel may be competitive for a short while at least until that too gets in short supply as a result of climate change. If you live in a reasonable climate where the stuff doesn't freeze, one could do worse for the environment than buy a diesel Volkswagen Jetta and run it on this stuff.

In a few years, nobody will think twice about such issues.

In a world of $15/gallon gasoline, micro/ultralight personal transportation will be the market leader. I suspect the ideal "transition vehicle" will be a three-wheeled enclosed bike with a super-efficient engine that gets 250 to 400 miles per gallon.

But the long run favors the "Garden City" concept: small cities with public transportation connecting them.

I'm also supportive of developing a new generation of airships to replace most overland cargo (sorry, truckers) and most passenger air traffic.

On the other hand, history has always been a race between intelligence and stupidity. I always bet on intelligence, and never expect to win.

--bkl