Pemex Says Daily Output May Rise, as Cantarell Falls 18% (in 2008)

phantom power

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Fri Feb-29-08 02:30 PM
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Pemex Says Daily Output May Rise, as Cantarell Falls 18% (in 2008)

The phrase "last gasp" comes to mind, although I'm sure the cornucopian cheerleaders will spin it as a victory for market forces or something.

Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleos Mexicanos, the state- owned oil company, expects to increase oil production in 2008 after a three-year decline, even as output at its largest field drops as much as 18 percent this year.

Overall production may rise to 3.1 million barrels a day this year, said Carlos Morales, director of exploration and production for Pemex, as the Mexico City-based company is known, during a fourth-quarter conference call today. Pemex's production was 3.08 million barrels a day in 2007.

The company's overall budget for next year will rise 28 percent to a record 218 billion pesos ($20.3 billion). Eighty- four percent is earmarked for exploration and production.

(...)

Pemex needs to drill in waters deeper than 5,000 meters to offset Cantarell's decline and boost reserves, she has said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&refer=energy&sid=avr37Wz_wIJc

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GliderGuider

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Fri Feb-29-08 02:46 PM
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1. I'll believe it when I see it.

Edited on Fri Feb-29-08 02:47 PM by GliderGuider

There's too much weasel-wording in there for my comfort PEMEX know they're hosed, but they can't admit it in public quite yet.

I don't think that paltry increase in E&P will cut it. The USA investment in lower-48 drilling went up by an order of magnitude in the 20 years after the peak in 1970, and even that never stemmed the decline.

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phantom power

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Fri Feb-29-08 03:41 PM
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2. It's a #$!!@ bunny!

(That's a joke that keeps on giving.)

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Dogmudgeon

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Fri Feb-29-08 10:25 PM
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3. Output probably WILL rise

For that matter, the price of oil will fall below $100/bbl, possibly even below $50/bbl if there is a major discovery. Then, inexorably, the price will begin to rise again. The trend is inescapable -- the price of oil will continue to rise over the long run. I personally don't think there will be any reversals that last longer than a year or two.

Small up-ticks always happen in downward trends, and down-ticks in upward trends. Statistics as a mathematical discipline was developed with this in mind.

--p!

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