Scientists - Florida May Face Long-Term Change In Hurricane Cycle

"Charley, Frances and Ivan. Three major hurricanes. Two assaults on Florida already and possibly a third by next week. Get used to it. This is the new normal.

Scientists say we are in a period of enhanced hurricane activity that could last for decades, ending a 24-year period of below-average activity. They also say the law of averages has caught up with Florida, with a change in atmospheric steering currents turning the state into a hurricane magnet.

''People are suddenly alert, suddenly paying attention,'' said Stanley Goldenberg, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane research division on Virginia Key. ``They can see now that we are in an active era. . . . People should realize that it is very unlikely that Frances is the last storm the U.S. will see this year.''

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A sobering thought: Between 1941 and 1950, seven major hurricanes -- with winds higher than 110 mph -- attacked Florida. ''And that doesn't include the other hurricanes,'' Goldenberg said. That 10-year period fell in the middle of a cycle of heightened activity that began in 1926 and persisted until 1970. Now, the combination of complacency bred during a long lull between 1971 and 1994, the new hyperactivity since 1995 and the ongoing mega-development of Florida's coasts frightens emergency managers and scientists."

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http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/state/9606229.htm