Independent:- Fade to black: Is this the end of oil?

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A world without plentiful oil, as described by the peakists, looks very different from today's. The peakists are in no doubt about the aspect of modern living that would have to change. With transport soaking up the vast majority of the world's oil, they maintain that our addiction to the car will have to go. According to Chris Skrebowski, large-scale electrification will be needed in all vehicles, perhaps with pylons placed down motorways to provide power. Diesel-powered public transport needs to be replaced with electric trains, trams, and trolley buses. That would create breathing space to make more profound societal changes, such as a growth of working from home. Matthew Simmons also sees the current global economy soon becoming unsustainable. "Local farms are now coming back," he says. "We have all the technology in place to do that."

That's just for starters. According to Campbell, a wholesale change in the western lifestyle will be needed a little further down the road. "Cities will face massive challenges," he says. "By the end of the century, when there really isn't very much oil left, the world will be a very different one – much more rural, probably with fewer people. It's a sort of doomsday message, but in some ways, it's just a change from the modern mindset. There are people in the world who live a simple life like that and are very happy." But that's nothing compared with what could happen if we attempt to carry on regardless with ever-growing oil consumption. "If we don't make changes, we're going to have a resource war and blow ourselves up," says Simmons. "I think that would be a really inconvenient way to end the world."

So will the end of the oil age herald in a new dark age? Are we doomed to go back to sheltering in mud huts and living off a diet of turnips and water? Not necessarily. Thankfully, other peakists are optimistic that we can cope with a world without such vast quantities of cheap oil – if we act now. "Humanity is very ingenious," says Skrebowski. "But at the moment, it doesn't yet see a crisis. We're just acting like a spoilt child who has had its lollipop taken away. At some point, some politician has got to come out and state clearly that the world is going to be different. It's not the end of the world, but we're all going to have to change the way we do things. And the sooner we get on with it, the better. The anticipation is probably worse than the reality."

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Full article here

Pretty amazing, considering that on the FTW website, he wrote "Don't ask me to speak, to lecture, or to investigate. I will not. Don't send me your questions. I will not come. I will not answer".

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/retrospective2008.shtml

Despite sounding this reclusive note, he wrote this 5 days ago:

As one who has labored with Colin Campbell, Matt Simmons, and Chris Skrebowski to educate about Peak Oil, I have to say that your article has brought me to tears; tears of gratitude. There you have it. The words and truths we have fought so hard to get into the mainstream for so many years have appeared with an eloquence, judgment, and intelligence I had never expected to witness. We cannot get this kind of truth told in the States yet, but your story will crack a rapidly melting North American glacier even further. CNN embarrasses itself on a daily basis now. What's happening in the North Sea is happening in Dubai, Mexico, Indonesia, the U.S., and yes, even Saudi Arabia.

My own book is in the Harvard Business School Library. It committed the cardinal sin of linking Peak Oil to 9/11 yet it has never been refuted (acknowledged) by the U.S. government or major American media. It is in its fifth printing and ranks at Amazon in the top 5 for Political Reference and Public Affairs/Administration four years after its publication. In it, I predicted the exact economic and energy picture that now confronts us as a species.

I am circulating the link for your story throughout the North American Peak Oil movement. It will give American Peak Oilists a big shot in the arm. We have been kicked around pretty thoroughly for a long time,waiting for moments of sane coverage. It is my fervent prayer that Michael Savage's skills remain focused on the issue and that both his editors' courage and pocketbook will allow that to happen.

Michael C. Ruppert

http://www.mikeruppert.blogspot.com/

It's just going to get more and more expensive and dirtier and dirtier. The good part is the "more expensive" part. As oil becomes more expensive, alternatives will take over. Oil is poison, so that is good for everyone. The problem is that two of the alternatives, coal and nuclear, are just as bad. "Peak Oil" is really nothing to fear. Everything we do with oil can be done better and cleaner. Peak Oil can lead to a cleaner and healthier world. But if we allow ourselves to be suckered into accepting coal and nuclear as substitutes, then we'll just slide into an environmental dark age...

with the exception of coal and nuclear none of the alternative fuel sources will produce enough energy to even keep up with our current needs much less the needs of a growing human population. I fear that what we need and undoubtedly will get is a massive malthusian die off.

(except for deep sea sulfer vent communities) utilize one energy input: the sun. It works, it works everyday, and for all intents and purposes it works forever. And it's free. Artificial ecosystems based on finite energy inputs are destined to crash and burn. It's time to get ourselves right with nature if we want our civilization to last. The good news is that all the tools are in our hands right now.

power at our level without reversing population growth. and if that is not possible then how do you plan to reverse population growth before our growing population and energy needs cause us to do the equivilent of running off a cliff. So how do you plan to deal with population and energy needs for a planet that has too big a population to deal with for your solar plans to be particularly viable.

Also making the solar infrastructure will need things like smelting of metals and finding rarer raw materials that will make it very hard to do. How are you going to smelt metal with solar power. that is something that takes high tempuratures that might not be doable with solar or electricity.

and reach your own conclusions. I think you can probably see that switching to another finite and highly polluting energy source is not a long term solution....

that's been nothing but a distraction in every argument of this sort for ages now.

If you look at actual energy reserves, combining oil and coal and alternatives, plus the solar and wind technology at hand, there is no reason to suggest a massive die off. There is great reason to suggest that patterns of consumption will have to change, and reason to say the sooner the world birthrate goes below replacement the better. Then simple natural attrition can bring populations down to sustainable levels. I have seen one very workable model on this just for Britain, but I haven't been able to find the link again...

The article above is a very good one, and it is much better in tone than many previous. I think the difference is that people are listening now, so dire drama and shouting is less necessary.

although I think that part of the solution needs to be finding some method of quickly ending and reversing the population growth on this planet. Also a lot of high tech including solar involves use of rare minerals and plastics(made from fossil fuels) which have to be brought into account for making such an infrastructure. Speaking of plastics. how many products are there that we need oil as a base component to make. All plastics, most of our chemicals, not real sure what else beyond that.


I know that either we will do it or nature will do it for us. I don't think anybody is going to like natures methods of doing it.

is the 600 lb gorilla wreaking havoc on all our fine plans, and that is for sure...

in the energy towers like in The Matrix...:sarcasm: