Gas could fall to $2 analysts say, if Congress acts to limit speculation in energy futures market.

JohnWxy

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Mon Jun-23-08 03:24 PM
Original message

Gas could fall to $2 analysts say, if Congress acts to limit speculation in energy futures market.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3364358

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HockeyMom

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Mon Jun-23-08 03:32 PM
Response to Original message

1. Very much like the dot.coms

and the real estate market.

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The Doctor.

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Tue Jun-24-08 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #1

14. But unlike the Dot.coms, not everyone's invited.

Ordinary people could put a hundred bucks in "pretzelsbymail.com" and watch it grow like mad. Futures market speculation really only works well for the wealthy or people who picked up mutual funds.

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OKIsItJustMe

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Mon Jun-23-08 03:35 PM
Response to Original message

2. McCain, Gas Prices and the "Enron Loophole" (From Countdown)

Edited on Mon Jun-23-08 03:38 PM by OKIsItJustMe

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/25252591#25252591

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JohnWxy

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Mon Jun-23-08 03:39 PM
Response to Reply #2

4. Jesus! I hope you posted this over on PResidential Discussion.(more viewers).

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OKIsItJustMe

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Mon Jun-23-08 03:44 PM
Response to Reply #4

5. No, I didn't actually

I trust it already was

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Skink

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Mon Jun-23-08 03:36 PM
Response to Original message

3. Can we get a rebate.

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tinrobot

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Mon Jun-23-08 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #3

6. I'd rather the money go towards renewable energy.

Imagine putting all that money into eliminating the oil companies... wouldn't that be sweet?

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Skink

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Mon Jun-23-08 03:57 PM
Response to Reply #6

7. Meanwhile all the airlines are going out of business.

including those that still have pensions for their employees.
I find it interesting that the only profitable airline, SW- is based on speculation. They were basically a hedgefund that wanted an airline so they hedged fuel from the very begining. Nothing illegal about that. But then everybody does it and what few regulations their were are stripped. I have to say this has got to be more of a world speculative problem. It's all being done offshore so it can't be regulated.

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kimmerspixelated

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Mon Jun-23-08 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #6

8. That's right.

Do to them what they did to us! Except at least I think we would kiss them first!
Or, maybe not-Yuck-slimey oil pricks!

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ladjf

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Mon Jun-23-08 08:27 PM
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9. That sounds like a good idea, certain worth trying.

At the same time, a massive national push toward alternate energy sources, i.e. wind, solar, tidal and geothermal could break the oil monopoly in five years.

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NNadir

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Mon Jun-23-08 09:59 PM
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10. That, of course, would be a disaster.

It seems not to have sunk in with the car cults yet, but the external cost of gasoline - that would be the costs associated with dangerous fossil fuel waste, dangerous fossil fuel war, dangerous fossil fuel terrorism, destruction of crops by dangerous fossil fuels, and dangerous fossil fuel health impacts make the fully loaded cost of gasoline easily be over $10/gallon.

But if you look carefully at the renewables will save us crew, you will see that they are wholly and totally invested in the car cults.

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Courtesy Flush

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Tue Jun-24-08 01:23 PM
Response to Reply #10

16. $2/ gallon gas would be a disaster

I know it sounds mean, but let's face it, if we had cheap gas again people would buy more Hummers and SUVs, and dust off their 500 HP outboard motors, and alternative fuels will never be developed.

It's not just about your monthly expenses. There's so much more at stake.

Will gas have to hit $10 before people get serious about alternatives?

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diane in sf

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Tue Jun-24-08 12:49 AM
Response to Original message

11. Speculation aside, we're still running out of oil--particularly easy to get, sweet oil.

And burning it still causes global warming. The price may go up and down for awhile based on speculation and other issues, but the long term trend is clear.

I'm planning on getting a plug-in hybrid that mostly runs on electricity around town and hoping to build/remodel a home where I'm generating solar power, heating water with solar and using daylighting and passive heating and cooling to minimize all forms of energy consumption and keep costs as low as possible.

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philly_bob

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Tue Jun-24-08 11:57 AM
Response to Original message

12. I doubt that rules on speculators will cut prices by that much

and there may be unanticipated side effects, like gas stations running out of fuel because companies can't "lock in" prices on futures market.

We really are running out of oil, folks.

In my planning, I figure we'll eventually end up with the $5-$6 oil that Europe has.

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The Doctor.

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Tue Jun-24-08 01:20 PM
Response to Reply #12

15. No, it really is that big a bubble.

Otherwise, yes, demand will continue to oustrip supply for a while, but we won't reach true market equilibrium in the current range for a while.

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philly_bob

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Tue Jun-24-08 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #15

17. FTC was tasked by Congress to find out how much of oil price is speculation

The FTC public comments page (http://www.ftc.gov/os/comments/marketmanipulation/index.shtm) makes good reading on this question. More than 100 public comments, ranging from inarticulate anger to industry talking points to tin-foil conspiracy theory.

I wonder (a) what number the FTC will come up with for % of oil price due to speculation and (b) whether it will be believed.

I think the % will be around 15%. I gather you think it will be closer to 50%.

Incidentally, Dr_e, I appreciate the calm tone of your response. DU was such a source of nastiness during primaries I had almost given up on it as a useful forum for discussion.

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GliderGuider

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Tue Jun-24-08 12:22 PM
Response to Original message

13. Extrapolating recent price trends for oil hints at a range of $250 to $900 a barrel by 2012

Edited on Tue Jun-24-08 12:25 PM by GliderGuider

I show the extrapolations here.

If the ratio of the price of crude oil to the price of gasoline holds (and there's no reason to think it wouldn't), that could result in gas selling for $7.50 to $25.00 a gallon in less than four years. My bet is on $15.00/gallon, just below the middle of that range.

IMO there is very little speculation built into today's oil prices - it's almost all (say 85%) fundamentals. This is what Peak Oil is all about.

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