Scientists Project Big Changes For Pacific NW As Climate Shifts

"Nearly four dozen experts on global warming and its effects say the Pacific Northwest is likely to be hard-hit by a changing climate over the next few decades. Warmer temperatures, rising sea levels, diminished snowpack and water quality, a longer wildfire season -- all are among the measurable phenomena at the core of the scientists' "consensus statement" issued Friday.

The scientists -- most of the 46 are from Oregon State University and the University of Washington -- said they "agree that climate change is underway" and "that since 1975 the warming is best explained by human-caused changes in greenhouse gases." The assertions, although not new and suggested by earlier studies, are striking because of their widespread support in a scientific community often rife with disagreement. Global warming has been the subject of contention since the early 1980s.

Among the more dramatic of the scientists' projections show temperatures rising as much or more in the next 25 years as they did in the past century. That, in turn, drives many projected effects that include a timberline that will creep upward on Cascade peaks.

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Among their findings: The average annual temperature has increased by 1 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit throughout most of the region in the past century, and could rise by nearly 3 degrees by 2030 and by 5.5 degrees by 2050. "The rate of increase may be even higher in the eastern portion of the region," the report says, but "the exact magnitude and rate of increase are difficult to predict, particularly beyond 50 years." Mountain snowpacks will continue to decline throughout the West as they have in the past 50 years. Warmer winter temperatures will continue to increase, resulting in more runoff in winter and reduced water availability in summer. Hydroelectric power, fish habitat, farm irrigation, river transportation and recreation will be affected. Higher temperatures probably will result in longer growing seasons, a higher elevation treeline, earlier plant and animal breeding. Drier summers will lead to drought stress and vulnerability of forests to fire, disease and insects. Sea level, which has risen globally by 4 to 8 inches in the past century, is rising on the central and northern Oregon coast at a rate of .06 to .08 inches annually, on average. "Sea level is very certain to continue to rise," the scientists said. An increase in wave height linked to sea-level rise "has the potential to increase erosion in coastal areas." The Northwest's annual precipitation has increased on average by 10 percent in the past 100 years, and by 30 percent to 40 percent in some areas of Eastern Washington and northern Idaho. Changes in future precipitation "are very uncertain," the report says."

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http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/front_page/109913769649472.xml

That's one to send to my friends and authority figures.