Business Week (!) Claims Field-By-Field Analysis Shows SA Long-Term Capacity Around 10 MB/D

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But the detailed document, obtained from a person with access to Saudi oil officials, suggests that Saudi Aramco will be limited to sustained production of just 12 million barrels a day in 2010, and will be able to maintain that volume only for short, temporary periods such as emergencies. Then it will scale back to a sustainable production level of about 10.4 million barrels a day, according to the data. BusinessWeek obtained a field-by-field breakdown of estimated Saudi oil production from 2009 through 2013. It was provided by an oil industry executive who said he had confirmed it with a ranking Saudi energy official who has access to the field data. The executive, who has proven reliable over several years of reporting interaction, provided the data on condition of anonymity to protect his access to the kingdom and the identity of the inside contact who confirmed the information.

Saudi Aramco officials in the kingdom could not be reached for comment on July 9.

Three industry analysts in the U.S. said the document's overall conclusion—that the Saudis cannot sustain higher than 12 million barrels a day maximum production for the next few years—appeared to be reasonable. "My view is that when they finish their expansion program they are unlikely to be above 12" million barrels per day, says Roger Diwan, a Middle East energy expert with PFC Energy, a consultancy in Washington, D.C. Lawrence Goldstein, an analyst with the Energy Policy Research Foundation, an industry-funded research group, said that uncertainty about Saudi production remains a problem for the market. "The only ones who know could be the Saudis," Goldstein says, "and they might not know because they haven't tested the deliverability system in as much as a decade."

A principal reason for the dramatic surge in world oil prices has been a tight balance of global supply and demand, combined with a lack of spare capacity to produce more crude in a pinch. So that what previously might be considered a barely consequential guerrilla attack in oil-rich Nigeria, or an empty Iranian threat to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, results in a far more dramatic oil market reaction than ever before.

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http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jul2008/db2008079_865368.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_dialogue+with+readers