Peak oil is a done deal

Peak oil is a done deal
by Dave Cohen

It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings
— anonymous

The fat lady is warming up
— anonymous

I now believe that the hypothesis of a near or medium-term peak in the world's oil supply is confirmed beyond any reasonable doubt. A shift in emphasis that speaks to reducing our demand for oil and examining alternatives to oil is now required. I will be taking that road in the future, leaving specific concerns about the oil supply behind.

Today's story briefly summarizes why I believe "peak oil" is a done deal. The forecast1 below reflects my own view. This analysis does not necessarily reflect the view of ASPO-USA.

Global oil (crude + condensate) production will peak at 76.5 ± 0.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2011, ± 1 year, with a probability of 80%. There is a 20% likelihood that output will peak at another level—not 76-77 million b/d—between 2009 and 2013.


This estimate intentionally says nothing about the shape of the production curve after the peak. I stand by this forecast and will not be revising it in the future. A "peak oil" forecast examines the supply-side of the oil market, but reality dictates that high prices will affect demand. My estimate can thus be viewed as a "low price" or "reference" case that ignores the effects of rising prices. See the Summary for a brief discussion.

more...

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/45940

:yoiks:

Obviously, crude & condensate production has been flatlining on a global level since 2005. By flatlining, I mean in relation to historical rates, the increase is mathematically real this year, but microscopic in terms of how production has historically ramped up to meet global demand increases like the one we've been experiencing for the last five years. But as to the actual mathematical world oil production peak, predictions have varied due to insufficient data (i.e. lack of Saudi transparency for one thing). Cohen believes the data he has obtained narrows the wiggle room quite a bit.

if a bit on the depressing side! But thanks for posting this. Ms Bigmack

Interesting how this ties in with Fatih Barol's recent announcement:

IEA/Fatih Birol - Non-OPEC Production Peak Within Next Two Years - Times
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x162887

Looks like the 2010-2011 period is when TSHTF. Depressing, I agree.