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7/21 08:00 EDT TS Dolly Extreme NE Tip Of Yucatan - Max Sust 50 1005 Mb - WNW 16 Mph

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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-21-08 08:58 AM
Original message
7/21 08:00 EDT TS Dolly Extreme NE Tip Of Yucatan - Max Sust 50 1005 Mb - WNW 16 Mph
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0408W+gif/085313W_sm.gif

000
WTNT34 KNHC 211156
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DOLLY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE STORM MOVES OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND DOLLY COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON PRELIMINARY REPORTS
FROM NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...88.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/211156.shtml?
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-21-08 09:28 AM
Response to Original message
1. Bears Repeating - NHC Projects Hurricane By Tomorrow nt
,
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-21-08 11:13 AM
Response to Original message
2. 7/21 11:00 AM EDT - Dolly 65 ENE Progreso, Mexico - Max Sust 50 1005 Mb Will Strengthen Over Gulf

Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning Storm Surge
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



000
WTNT34 KNHC 211454
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY NOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE NORTHWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S.
BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO RIO SAN FERNANDO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON
THIS TRACK...DOLLY WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA
IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...89.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/211156.shtml?
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-21-08 11:21 AM
Response to Original message
3. TS heat potential:
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-21-08 11:34 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Still relatively early . .
Thanks for the chart!
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-21-08 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. It's respectable. As we can see, it's enough to power a hurricane.
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-21-08 12:53 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. NOAA buoy data give mostly low-to-mid 80s offshore, upper 80s inshore
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-08 08:22 AM
Response to Original message
7. 7/22 0700 CDT Dolly 265 SE Brownsville Max Sust 65 993 Mb Will Become Hurricane Before Landfall
000
WTNT34 KNHC 221200
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY A LITTLE STRONGER...NOAA PLANE IN THE AREA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO
NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO
SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES...425 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DOLLY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM FROM A NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...23.7 N...94.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-22-08 12:30 PM
Response to Original message
8. 7/22 10:00 AM CDT Dolly 230 SE Brownsville Max Sust 70 991 Mb Moving NW 12 MPH
000
WTNT34 KNHC 221442
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER
BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 230
MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE
ENXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...24.0 N...94.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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