Apollo 13 and the energy crisis of 2008

``Grandfather, tell us the story about the men who went to the Moon and barely made it back--and how that was like when the world discovered there wasn't enough oil.



``Oh, you mean Apollo 13. Yes, that story is very much like what happened back in the energy crisis of 2008, before you were born. What those astronauts had to do to survive was very much like what the world had to do.

``Tell us the story, Grandfather!

``Apollo 13 was one of many trips to the Moon and back, some returning without landing. This trip was planned to include a landing to explore the lunar surface. When they left Earth they were on a `safe return' trajectory so that if something went wrong, their craft would have automatically looped around the Moon and returned on the proper path for a safe landing. In order to land on the lunar surface, however, they had to adjust their trajectory for a better orbit for the landing. Once they had made that adjustment, they were no longer on the `safe return' trajectory.

``And, that's when the problem happened?

``Right! A sudden, loud bang announced the problem--there had been some warning signs that something was not right for some time before, but the controllers didn't know what to make of them--and in a similar way the early symptoms of the energy crisis were misunderstood and ignored.

``So, what was the loud bang?

``One of the liquid oxygen tanks that powered the command module's fuel cell and supplied oxygen to breathe had exploded! When they finally realized what had happened, they had to quickly shut off the oxygen to the fuel cell to save what was left. That meant there was no power for the command module. Fortunately, in planning the mission, they had rehearsed what they would do if the command module lost power--they would use the lunar lander as a `lifeboat'! That's like what we called 'contingency planning' in preparing for anticipatable disruptions of the world's energy supplies.

``So, that's how they got back safely?

``Well, yes, but that wasn't all there was to it--their problems were far from over.

``First, not only could they no longer land on the Moon, but the power and oxygen they had assumed would be available were now limited to what the lunar lander could supply--only intended for two people for a few days on the surface--which now had to be stretched out to supply three people for the trip all the way back to Earth.

``How could they get by on so little?

``By purposeful conservation! By that I mean that it was not enough to just use a little less energy; they had to use a lot less.

``The astronauts not only had to save enough to make it all the way back before their supplies ran out, they also had to have enough power to spare to operate the controls of the lunar lander during two course corrections.

``The world in 2008 faced a very similar problem: availability of fossil fuels had reached a peak and could not keep growing to match exploding demand, not to mention needs of business as usual. And, not only did the world have less energy available than it could have used, but, as with the astronauts, purposeful conservation was needed to save enough extra to have resources, including energy, to spare for investing in the shift to a more sustainable energy path.

``It sounds like the astronauts almost ran out of time if they hadn't changed course to speed up their return--which used up some of their reserves! How close did they come to running out?

``Very close. Every minute and every breath used up precious supplies--the time they bought by conserving made it possible to invest in the course corrections, with very little to spare! Not only that, but they had an unanticipated complication: carbon dioxide was building up in their atmosphere--they could have returned intact, but dead from asphyxiation!

``That's spooky--the world today has the same problem--how did they solve their problem?

``It wasn't easy! It took creative, out-of-the-box thinking and collaboration among the crew and backup crew on Earth, using a duplicate capsule on the ground. Eventually they were able to improvise a makeshift device, using materials on hand, including a sock, to adapt the command module's filter to the lunar lander.

``Of course, as you point out, there has been a parallel need to curb global carbon dioxide emissions that has limited choices of technologies as the world has shifted to a more sustainable energy economy. Conservation, itself, dramatic efficiency improvements and carbon-neutral and sustainable energy resources all have helped reduce greenhouse gas emissions far below 'business as usual' projections, while homegrown businesses and jobs have flourished far in excess of the losses in traditional industries.

``They were really lucky to have overcome all those problems to make it back safely when it looked like they didn't have a prayer!

``You're right; it was pretty amazing that they made it! Maybe more than you realize--when they made their course corrections, they had to use hand calculators and steer by hand to hit a reentry 'window' that was like the thickness of a sheet of paper four feet way. If they had missed it, their reentry vehicle would have either burned up or bounced off into space!

``But, it wasn't just luck. They had prepared and rehearsed contingency plans in case of anticipatable emergencies, so they didn't panic; instead they communicated, cooperated, collaborated creatively, and rose to the challenge with determination to do what was necessary to make it, even if it meant some hardship. And some prayer probably didn't hurt!

``It has taken a similar sense of determination, worldwide, for us to make it as far as we have in the transition to a sustainable energy economy. In the past 20 years we have come a long way toward that goal but there is still a long way to go. And it was by no means inevitable or easy. There were many points where it could have gone seriously awry. In the early years there was a lot of denial, anger and blame, and an impulse to fight over control of access to the remaining oil and gas.

``But, there is still oil and gas being used today--we didn't run out--why didn't they realize that we could switch to renewable energy sources like we use today?

``A lot of people thought we could do just that--along with a slew of other things that seemed reasonable ..... But, by the time the crisis hit, fossil fuel prices were killing the economy and everything cost so much that no one had any money to spare to invest in any of the alternatives ..... And, when the shortages hit, there was nothing ready to turn to as a substitute on the scale that was needed--time had become a scarce resource as well as money and energy itself! And, every proposed solution was competing for those same scarce resources!

``Reluctantly, people came to see that only one thing could accomplish what was needed: purposeful conservation! Even in the midst of the crisis, contingency plans could be implemented rapidly at almost no cost, buying time, saving money, extending the depleting resources and further reducing costs by falling demand resulting in lower prices.

``Conservation with the purpose of investing the conserved resources in greatly improved efficiency buys still more time and lowers the level of energy needed for a comfortable standard of living--a level that can be sustainably and affordably be supplied from a variety of sources.

``I see--since even efficiency takes time, money and energy, you have to start with purposeful conservation to buy time and be able to afford it and so on. But, today everyone seems to take that for granted--what made the difference?

``International cooperation instead of confrontation. Consuming Nations committed to reducing their consumption in concert with a calculated decline in production by producing countries--faster than natural depletion rates. This had the effect of making things predictable, creating reserves and extending the resource productivity, assuring that no one is tempted to seek an unfair advantage, and reducing competition for control of dwindling resources, that is wars.

``The second profound change has been the challenge of the 'International Race to Sustainability.' Like the race to the Moon that spawned the Apollo missions, the Race to Sustainability has captured the imagination of innovators all over the world. Much of the resources that had been formerly dedicated to building military capability in anticipation of a struggle of control of fossil resources are now



being directed toward the prestigious goal of leading the Race to Sustainability.

``Now, as you know, there are ongoing competitions that demonstrate self-powered, zero energy communities, both new and retrofitted. Self-powered, net food and fuel producing farms that are now commonplace, as increasingly are self-powered manufacturing in the renewable sector. Even transportation is becoming self-powered with the increasing deployment of highly efficient, Personal Rapid Transit networks.

``Wow, Grandfather, the way you tell it, the story of the world's transition to sustainability is almost as exciting as the Apollo 13 story! We're so lucky to be alive to be a part of it!

``Yes, it is an exciting time to be alive! With new, highly efficient technologies, the energy available whenever there is access to sunshine, blowing wind, running water, the energy of the ocean or the Earth's heat, can bring prosperity! The world has never seen such widespread prosperity! Increased democracy, better education of women, health care are following close behind.

``Thank you, Grandfather,'' very much for this story.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/45958

a bit of a stretch but i'll take it.

If the Apollo 13 food supply was threatened, their water was being polluted, one of the three crew members had cracked up and gone homicidal and another one didn't think there was a problem at all. And especially if, as is the case with Earth, the voyage had no end -- no possibility of a triumphant splashdown into an abundant world.

Stories like this are written by engineers who are trained to think that every problem has a solution. Thinking in terms of "solving" this multi-factorial, existential crisis rather than responding to it on an permanent ongoing basis may not be terribly productive.

Reminds me of A Crude Awakening when one of the speakers (I believe David Goodstein) spoke of needing a crash program comparable to Kennedy's call to put a man on the moon by the end of the Sixties. Then through the wonder of film editing, Matt Savinar mused on the comparison by commenting that the Peak Oil situation is comparable to Kennedy calling for the world to colonize Pluto by the end of the Sixties.

I have to give Bartlett credit though for emphasizing that conservation is key, that conservation is the number one priority that we need to do. There's still a bit of bargaining, to put it in Kubler-Ross terminology, in his approach. Like you say, he's still in "solving" mode as opposed to Heinberg's Powerdown approach.