8/15 8:00 AM EDT - NHC Sees "High Potential" For Further Development For Hispanolia/Puerto Rico Low

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...IT DOES NOT YET
APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
ALTHOUGH WHEN AND WHERE A DEPRESSION MIGHT FORM IS UNCERTAIN...IN
PART DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAND MASS OF
HISPANIOLA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. INTERESTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE...THAT IS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
MOVING INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IT.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...ALTHOUGH WHEN AND WHERE A DEPRESSION MIGHT FORM IS UNCERTAIN
DUE TO INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAND MASS OF HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF
CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND
JAMAICA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN