8/15 16:00 EDT Tropical Storm Fay Eastern Tip Dominica - Max Sust 35 1008 MB W 275 12 Knots

000
WTNT21 KNHC 152030
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR
THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH
COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES
NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 69.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 69.4W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 68.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.9N 71.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.4N 74.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N 76.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 82.0W...OVER COAST OF FLORIDA
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W...INLAND OVER FLORIDA
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 69.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



EDIT/END

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/152030.shtml

and only drown vacation hopes for damage.

If it drifts out into the gulf, things might change.

:o

Suck Bermuda, suck

000
WTNT31 KNHC 181149
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS FAY IS A LITTLE STRONGER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO
KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO
SEBASTIAN INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED
FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR JUST NORTHEAST OF VARADERO CUBA.
THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...EAST OF HAVANA CUBA
AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD BE
EMERGING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE
VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF
FAY MOVES OVER WATER. FAY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY.
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...23.2 N...81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/FRANKLIN