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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-28-09 04:20 PM
Original message
latest study of corn ethanol production shows GHG reductions of 48% to 59% reductions vs gasoline &
Edited on Wed Jan-28-09 04:37 PM by JohnWxy
Net Energy Ratios of 1.8 to 2.2 (that is net energy gain of 80% to 120%). This analysis used the displacement method of quantifying the coproduct credit for Dried Distillers Grains & Solubles which is produced along with ethanol, when using corn, and is used as a feed supplement for cattle and hogs. All the protein from the corn is captured in the ethanol production process and is used as a feed supplement. Thus the only loss to the food chain is the starch component of the corn.

http://domesticfuel.com/2009/01/22/report-shows-efficiency-of-ethanol-production/

" The University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Nebraska Center for Energy Sciences Research has just released its report entitled “Improvements in Life Cycle Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Corn Ethanol” which was published in Yale’s Journal of Industrial Ecology (JIE).

According to the report, “Direct effect GHG emissions were estimated to be equivalent to a 48% to 59% reduction compared to gasoline, a twofold to threefold greater reduction than reported in previous studies.” The report also found that the eight corn-ethanol scenarios had net energy ratio (NER) values from 1.29 to 2.23, meaning ethanol returned 29 to 123 percent more energy than was required for its production. "


see complete report

"..we analyzed the life cycles of corn-ethanol
systems accounting for the majority of U.S. capacity to estimate
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy efficiencies
on the basis of updated values for crop management and
yields, biorefinery operation, and coproduct utilization. Directeffect
GHG emissions were estimated to be equivalent to a
48% to 59% reduction compared to gasoline, a twofold to
threefold greater reduction than reported in previous studies.
Ethanol-to-petroleum output/input ratios ranged from 10:1
to 13:1 but could be increased to 19:1 if farmers adopted
high-yield progressive crop and soil management practices.
An advanced closed-loop biorefinery with anaerobic digestion
reduced GHG emissions by 67% and increased the net
energy ratio to 2.2, from 1.5 to 1.8 for the most common
systems. Such improved technologies have the potential to
move corn-ethanol closer to the hypothetical performance of
cellulosic biofuels. Likewise, the larger GHG reductions estimated
in this study allow a greater buffer for inclusion of
indirect-effect land-use change emissions while still meeting
regulatory GHG reduction targets. These results suggest that
corn-ethanol systems have substantially greater potential to
mitigate GHG emissions and reduce dependence on imported
petroleum for transportation fuels than reported previously."
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




As we move to cellulosic ethanol production starch based ethanol production will be continually improved in efficiency. Once cellulosic ethanol production becomes economically viable and expands the corn based ethanol plants will be converted to cellulosic ethanol production. Thus the presence of the corn based ethanol industry will facilitate and accelerate the transition to cellulosic ethanol production. In the 20 to 30 years it will take for electric cars to have a significant impact on our fossil fuel use we will need these technologies to reduce GHG emissions and mitigate their global warming affects.






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Xipe Totec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-28-09 04:44 PM
Response to Original message
1. All the protein from the corn...
And where does the nitrogen for that protein come from?

Fertilizers.

and where did the fertilizers come from?

Oil & Natural Gas.

Was the GHG contribution of amonia fertilizers factored into these calculations?





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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-28-09 04:58 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. I can see you are very new to this issue. Of course, that was considered.
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Xipe Totec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-28-09 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. I can see they account for the GHG contribution of using the fertilizer,
but not the GHG contribution of producing the fertilizer.

Two different things.

But thank you for the condescending reply.
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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-29-09 07:48 PM
Response to Reply #5
10. there was no condescension in my reply, just a bit of impatience. it was a pretty obvious thing to

consider. Here is a link to Farrell and Kammen's meta analysis of a number of studies of ethanol: http://rael.berkeley.edu/EBAMM/
This will give you a good intro to the factors that the people studying this matter have been talking about for some time.


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drm604 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-28-09 04:53 PM
Response to Original message
2. Renewable Fuels Association
That report is on a website belonging to the "Renewable Fuels Association".
The Renewable Fuels Association is a well-funded corporate lobby that promotes government support for ethanol fuel. It is a supporter of the Alliance for Abundant Food and Energy whose other members include Archer Daniels Midland. Deere & Company, DuPont and Monsanto.

I would take what it says with a large grain of salt.
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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-28-09 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Rather than reviewing the study as did Yale’s Journal of Industrial Ecology (JIE).
Edited on Wed Jan-28-09 05:03 PM by JohnWxy


They wouldn't have published it if they thought it showed any questionable methodology.
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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-28-09 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. That doen't ensure the overall accuracy of the conclusions
For example, did they count the worldwide impact on land use?

Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change
Timothy Searchinger,1* Ralph Heimlich,2 R. A. Houghton,3 Fengxia Dong,4 Amani Elobeid,4 Jacinto Fabiosa,4 Simla Tokgoz,4 Dermot Hayes,4 Tun-Hsiang Yu4

Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels. By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products.

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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-29-09 06:45 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Wang's responses to Searchinger's article.
http://www.hrccc.org/images/ANL_-_Wang_response_to_land_use.pdf


"Searchinger et al. had to decide what land use changes would be needed in Brazil, the United States, China, and India to meet their simulated requirement for 10.8 million hectares of new crop land. With no data or modeling, Searchinger et al. used the historical land use changes that occurred in the 1990s in individual countries to predict future land use changes in those countries (2015 and beyond). This assumption is seriously flawed by predicting deforestation in the Amazon and conversion of grassland into crop land in China, India, and the United States. The fact is, deforestation rates have already declined through legislation in Brazil and elsewhere. In China, contrary to the Searchinger et al. assumptions, efforts have been made in the past ten years to convert marginal crop land into grassland and forest land in order to prevent soil erosion and other environmental problems.
In estimating the GHG emissions payback period for corn ethanol, Searchinger et al. relied on the 20% reduction in GHG emissions that is provided in the GREET model for the current ethanol industry (note the recent study by Univ of Nebraska mentioned above shows much higher reductions of GHG, 48% to 59%, by ethanol compared to gasoline than the 20% figure based on older data_JW). Future corn ethanol plants could improve their energy efficiency by avoiding DGS drying (in some ethanol plants) or switching to energy sources other than natural gas or coal, either of which would result in greater GHG emissions reductions for corn ethanol (Wang et al. 2007). Searchinger et al. failed to address this potential for increased efficiency in ethanol production.


In one of the sensitivity cases, Searchinger et al. examined cellulosic ethanol production from switchgrass grown on land converted from corn farms. Cellulosic biomass feedstocks for ethanol production could come from a variety of sources. Oak Ridge National Laboratory completed an extensive assessment of biomass feedstock availability for biofuel production (Perlack et al. 2005). With no conversion of crop land in the United States, the study concludes that more than 1 billion tons of biomass resources are available each year from forest growth and by-products, crop residues, and perennial energy crops on marginal land. In fact, in the same issue of Sciencexpress as the Searchinger et al. study is published, Fargione et al. (2008) show beneficial GHG results for cellulosic ethanol.
~~

On the basis of our own analyses, production of corn-based ethanol in the United States so far results in moderate GHG emissions reductions. There has also been no indication that U.S. corn ethanol production has so far caused indirect land use changes in other countries because U.S. corn exports have been maintained at about 2 billion bushels a year and because U.S. DGS exports have steadily increased in the past ten years. U.S. corn ethanol production is expected to expand rapidly over the next few years — to 15 billion gallons a year by 2015. It remains to be seen whether and how much direct and indirect land use changes will occur as a result of U.S. corn ethanol production.

The Searchinger et al. study demonstrated that indirect land use changes are much more difficult to model than direct land use changes. To do so adequately, researchers must use general equilibrium models that take into account the supply and demand of agricultural commodities, land use patterns, and land availability (all at the global scale), among many other factors. Efforts have only recently begun to address both direct and indirect land use changes (see Birur et al. 2007). At this time, it is not clear what land use changes could occur globally as a result of U.S. corn ethanol production. While scientific assessment of land use change issues is urgently needed in order to design policies that prevent unintended consequences from biofuel production, conclusions regarding the GHG emissions effects of biofuels based on speculative, limited land use change modeling may misguide biofuel policy development.



Searchinger presented a hypothesis that land use changes will occur as a result of biofuels production. Land use changes are occurring but at this point it's not proven that they are as a result of increased production of ethanol.

Deforestation, in particular is largely due to illegal logging of timber.






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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-30-09 08:45 AM
Response to Reply #8
15. Illegal slash and burn, too.
To put up big cattle farms.
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-29-09 08:33 PM
Response to Reply #6
13. You make a good point
Or the artcle you snip does

Cutting down the forests really distubs me. I live in an area where the pear orchards are being cut and burned for the sake of planting vineyards. Habitat for all the animals immediately suffers. The vineyards are so sterile thatt he deer, badgers, rabbits, coons, skunks, snakes and other reptiles,a nd the birds lose out.
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drm604 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-28-09 05:29 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. It's important to point out the source and any potential bias.
Edited on Wed Jan-28-09 05:30 PM by drm604
That bias doesn't necessarily disprove the article but it's important to note potential bias in a scientific study.

I'm not familiar with Yale's JIE so I can't really remark on their reliability.

If ethanol can give a net GHG reduction then that's great, but I can't reach that conclusion based on this one article.
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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-29-09 07:38 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. the study was conducted by faculty and staff of the University of Nebraska -
Edited on Thu Jan-29-09 08:07 PM by JohnWxy
Department of Agronomy and Horticulture and the Department of Animal Science.

The fact that an organization that is interested in using ethanol as a way of reducing our use of imported fossil fuels and the attendant production of GHGs reported on the publication of a study is no reason to question the validity of the study. I think this should be obvious.

An article about this study also appeared on a university of Nebraska Institute of Agricultural Resources web site if you are interested: http://ianrnews.unl.edu/static/0901220.shtml). (It provides a nice short summary of the study's findings.)

The study was reviewed and published by Yale’s Journal of Industrial Ecology (JIE) - a peer reviewed journal. Yale University is - and I am not a graduate of this institution - but I think I can safely say that it is widely regarded as a REASONABLY good university (actually I'll go out on alimb here and say many would say it is widely regarded as one of the premier institutions in the U.S.). I think you can consider the work of any of it's journals as reasonably competent and reliable (or at least, not of dubious credibility). From the journal's web-site: The Journal of Industrial Ecology is owned by Yale University, edited at the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, and published by Wiley-Blackwell. It is the official journal of the International Society for Industrial Ecology. "




















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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-29-09 08:23 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. No you shouldn't just decide on the basis of one article. but I was just reporting on a results of
Edited on Thu Jan-29-09 08:24 PM by JohnWxy
a recent study. I wasn't trying to give an encycopedic post.

I agree one should look at all data available before coming to a conclusion. Here is a list of research sites and articles. Note, some of these links will be a bit dated.

http://www.geocities.com/jwalkerxy/ethanol_research.htm
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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-29-09 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #7
14. Here is a good site for links to serious research on ethanol.
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-29-09 08:27 PM
Response to Original message
12. So let me get this straight, reducing the impact of moronic cars by 56% in your imagination
would make this distributed energy disaster, the suburban wastes, <em>acceptible</em>?

There isn't the <em>water</em> on this planet to fuel a fraction of the world's idiotic cars, and even if there were, the cars would still be giant heaps of poison.

There is no such thing as a "renewables will save us" clown who can do anything but "percent talk." It's fraudulent on its face.
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