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Ethanol no longer seen as big driver of food price - Guardian UK

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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-28-09 05:01 PM
Original message
Ethanol no longer seen as big driver of food price - Guardian UK
http://open.salon.com/content.php?cid=37481

The Guardian UK has an interesting article on ethanol and food prices in light of recent declines in corn prices.

Heavy demand for corn from ethanol makers was seen as a key driver of corn futures to record highs in June, but since then the sharp decline of corn along with other commodities shows that belief was mistaken.

Instead they say that commodity prices were pushed up primarily by speculation.
Analysts said soaring corn prices were a symptom of big shifts of investment money into corn and other commodities. As big money began shifting out of stocks a few years ago, commodity markets like corn futures began climbing. "There was a speculative bubble in the market and that's one of the bigget things that came out of the market is just that equity markets weren't good and for a while the money came into commodities," Ramsay said.

Given the fact that corn prices are falling even while ethanol production is continuing to increase, all the signs suggest that ethanol wasn't the main driver for the high prices seen during the summer. The Guardian article is the first that I have seen that points this out.

Source : Guardian UK
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The Guardian was one of the loudest proclaimers of the theory that biofuels were driving up food prices last year._JW







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MrModerate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-28-09 05:10 PM
Response to Original message
1. Shocking really, to consider that nearly all major economic dislocations . . .
Edited on Wed Jan-28-09 05:10 PM by MrModerate
are driven not by fundamentals -- what the man in the street would call "supply and demand," but by greedy ratbastards (by which I mean my fellow human beings) gaming the system.

Maybe it's the system that's the villain here.
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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-29-09 05:43 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. This has been largely the result of the CFMA - the legislation slippped in as a rider to the
Omnibus Spending Bill 2000 by Phil Gramm.

The Commodities futures MOdernization act legalized trading in CDSs (Credit Default Swaps). It also made the trading in CDSs entirely free of government oversight and regulation. Thus, leverage limits (that is how much credit was extended to the borrower who used this credit extension to buy commodities futures) were at the discretion of the issuer(usually a Wall Street bank). NOW, what most people do not know is CDSs were also used by institutional speculators in Commodities Futures contracts. They would have an investment bank buy the commodity futures for them and the bank sold them a Credit Default Swap supposedly to insure them in case the commodities dropped severely in value. As long as the bank was buying the commodities futures the speculator was not subject to margin requirements ordinarily applied to traders in commodities.

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS IGNITED THE COMMODITIES MARKET

understand this - the bank was loaning them the money to buy the futures and selling them a CDS to supposedly insure them against loss if the commodities dropped severely in value. The existence of the Credit Default Swap was igniting the commodities market. THAT IS WHY COMMODITY PRICES ROCKETED UP SO HIGH. IF YOU COULD GAMBLE ON SECURITIES AND THOUGHT YOU WERE INSURED AGAINST LOSS - WELL, YOU'D BE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO GAMBLE AND GAMBLE WITH MORE MONEY - ESPECIALLY IF YOU WERE PLAYING WITH SOMEBODY ELSES MONEY!
(NOTE; YOU WON'T GET THIS EXPLANATION FROM M$M, PERHAPS BECAUSE THEY DON'T GET IT YET!)

Michael Masters testified about this little trick to Congress and expains it very succinctly.

" Index Speculator Demand Is Driving Prices Higher

Today, Index Speculators are pouring billions of dollars into the commodities futures markets, speculating that commodity prices will increase. Chart One shows Assets allocated to commodity index trading strategies have risen from $13 billion at the end of 2003 to $260 billion as of March 2008"
~~
~~
"Let’s turn our attention to food prices, which have skyrocketed in the last six months.

When asked to explain this dramatic increase, economists’ replies typically focus on the diversion of a significant portion of the U.S. corn crop to ethanol production.11 What they overlook is the fact that Institutional Investors have purchased over 2 billion bushels of corn futures in the last five years. Right now, Index Speculators have stockpiled enough corn futures to potentially fuel the entire United States ethanol industry at full capacity for a year.12 That’s equivalent to producing 5.3 billion gallons of ethanol, which would make America the world’s largest ethanol producer."
~~
~~

The CFTC Has Invited Increased Speculation

When Congress passed the Commodity Exchange Act in 1936, they did so with the understanding that speculators should not be allowed to dominate the commodities futures markets. Unfortunately, the CFTC has taken deliberate steps to allow certain speculators virtually unlimited access to the commodities futures markets.

The CFTC has granted Wall Street banks an exemption from speculative position limits when these banks hedge over-the-counter swaps transactions.21 This has effectively opened a loophole for unlimited speculation.(note: THESE "OVER-THE-COUNTER SWAPS" HE IS TALKING ABOUT ARE CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS MADE LEGAL AND UNREGULATED BY THE COMMODITIES FUTURES MODERNIZATION ACT (CFMA) SLIPPED IN AS RRIDER TO THE OMNIBUS FUNDING BILL of 2000 )When Index Speculators enter into commodity index swaps, which 85-90% of them do, they face no speculative position limits.

The really shocking thing about the Swaps Loophole is that Speculators of all stripes can use it to access the futures markets. So if a hedge fund wants a $500 million position in Wheat, which is way beyond position limits, they can enter into swap with a Wall Street bank and then the bank buys $500 million worth of Wheat futures.23 In the CFTC’s classification scheme all Speculators accessing the futures markets through the Swaps Loophole are categorized as “Commercial” rather than “Non- Commercial.” The result is a gross distortion in data that effectively hides the full impact of Index Speculation.




So the same legislation which caused the credit meltdown also caused the explosion in commodity prices which brought our domestic auto industry to it's knees. THANK YOU PHIL GRAMM. ().






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excess_3 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-29-09 06:47 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. c'mon... the real problem, nothing to invest in
interest rates are near zero

companies are going bust left and right

worldwide, there is 50 trillion USD looking for something to do,
which is about one year of global finantial output

widows, pension funds, orphans, etc
sought out commodities,

the bubble eventually burst
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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-29-09 08:00 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. I happily refer you to Michael Masters testimony (link already given) a Hedge fund manager for a
more complete discussion. You may have been asleep the last several months but Credit Default Swaps have been recognized by all those not in a coma, as central to the credit catastrophe. OF course, Republicans (NOT that YOU are one of them) will have some other way of explaining it (of obfuscating the issue), but that's to be expected - it was their philosophy (or I should say their lobbyist controllers philosophy) that brought about this disaster.



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Tashca Donating Member (935 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-28-09 06:35 PM
Response to Original message
2. Never was
But people seemed to want to buy into the hysteria.
It was hedge funds....investors ...what the fuck ever.
Ending stocks are higher than they have been for a few years and ethanol production has increased.
Still something like 50 million acres laying in reserve.....about 22 million to come out in the next 5 or so years.
I just shook my head at the panic that people were spewing...
Beside....I believe the hysteria started from an article published in the Washington Times....put out by a think tank funded by the grocers association. Checked your grocery bill lately???
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jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-28-09 07:37 PM
Response to Original message
3. Surprise surprise
biofuel haters can STFU

:D
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