http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12222 Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies--A Focus on Hydrogen
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The use of HFCVs can achieve large and sustained reductions in U.S. oil consumption and CO
2 emissions, but several decades will be needed to realize these potential long-term benefits. Considerable progress is still required toward improving fuel cell costs and durability, as well as on-board hydrogen storage. The substantial financial commitments and technical progress made in recent years by the automotive industry, private entrepreneurs, and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) suggest that HFCVs and hydrogen production technologies could be ready for commercialization in the 2015-2020 time frame. Such vehicles are not likely to be cost-competitive until after 2020, but by 2050 HFCVs could account for more than 80 percent of new vehicles entering the fleet.
An accelerated transition to HFCVs would require that automobile manufacturers ramp up production of fuel cell vehicles even while they cost much more than conventional vehicles, and that investments be made to build and operate hydrogen fueling stations even while the market for hydrogen is very limited. Substantial government actions and assistance would therefore be needed to support such a transition to HFCVs in the 2020 time frame, even with good technical progress on fuel cell and hydrogen production technologies. Substantial and sustained research and development (R&D) programs also are required to further reduce the costs of fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen after 2020.
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The analysis did not really consider "battery electric vehicles."
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Based on a comparison of the three scenarios in
http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12222&page=16#p200161e29960016001">Figure S.5, the committee concluded that no single approach is likely to deliver both significant midterm and long-term reductions in oil demand and greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, conventional and hybrid vehicle technology, biofuels, and HFCVs should be considered not as competitors over the next few decades, but as part of a portfolio of options with a potential to deliver significant energy security and environmental benefits across a variety of time horizons. Other technologies not analyzed in this study, such as plug-in hybrids, battery electric vehicles, and other types of internal combustion engines, also should be examined as potential candidates for this portfolio. As in other domains, a portfolio of technology options is most likely to improve the chances of success while reducing the risks in the event that any one option fails to deliver on its promise.
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For more information on the possibilities of EV's check:
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12113 Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership:
Second Report
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Electrochemical Energy Storage
Improved battery performance, durability, and cost are critical to gaining more widespread acceptance for hybrid and plug-in hybrid automobiles (including fuel cell hybrids). Very significant progress has been made during the last 2 years, and lithium ion batteries have been developed that can meet several of the FreedomCAR 2010 goals, including weight, volume, and cycle life requirements, with good prospects for meeting the remaining goals as well as the calendar life requirements. New approaches have increased the safety and abuse tolerance of these batteries. Cost is the largest remaining barrier, with estimates of current cost about two times the 2010 goal. Substantial additional research is ongoing to find lower cost materials. The success of this effort will largely determine the viability of these batteries in mass-produced hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
A significant additional breakthrough in battery technology is needed to enable a competitive all-electric automobile that would help meet the FreedomCAR goals. Furthermore, the potential benefits of PHEVs in reducing petroleum consumption have been recognized by the Partnership, yet there seems to be a lack of urgency in finalizing and executing the R&D plan for PHEVs.
Recommendation. The Partnership should conduct a thorough analysis of the cost of the Li ion battery for each application: hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), PHEVs, battery electric vehicles (EVs), and hydrogen-fueled fuel cell HEVs. The analysis should reexamine the initial assumptions, including those for both market forces and technical issues, and refine them based on recent materials and process costs. It should also determine the effect of increasing production rates for the different systems under development.
Recommendation. The Partnership should significantly intensify its efforts to develop high-energy batteries; in particular it should look for newer higher-specific-energy electrochemical systems within the long-term battery research subactivity and in close coordination with BES.
Recommendation. The Partnership should move forward aggressively with completing and executing its R&D plan for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
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