Columbia/UN Study - Climate Migration "Could Vastly Exceed The Scope Of Anything Before" By 2050

By mid-century, people may be fleeing rising seas, droughts, floods and other effects of changing climate, in migrations that could vastly exceed the scope of anything before, says a major new report. The document, authored by researchers at Columbia University's Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), the United Nations University and CARE International, was released today at a news conference in Bonn.

The researchers say that the effects of climate are hard to sort from connected factors including political and economic conflicts, extreme weather events, population growth, human destruction of ecosystems and overuse of farmland.

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Among its findings:

+ Breakdown of ecosystem-based economies including subsistence herding, farming and fishing will be the dominant driver of forced migration.

+ Climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of natural hazards such as cyclones, floods and droughts. Rains in parts of Mexico and central America, for instance, are projected to drop as much as 50% by 2080. Farmers in parts of Mexico and north Africa's Sahel region may already be moving in part due to changing rains.

+ Sea level rise directly threatens the existence of some 40 countries. Saltwater intrusion, flooding and erosion could destroy agriculture in the densely populated Mekong, Nile and Ganges deltas. A rise of two meters, or six feet--well within some projections for this century-- would inundate nearly half the Mekong's 3 million hectares (7.5 million acres) of farmland. Some Pacific island nations including the Maldives (pop. 300,000) are already considering prospects for total relocation.

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http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Climate_Change_Could_Drive_Vast_Human_Migrations_999.html