Ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate change (ozone recovery may slow GHG climate change.)

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L15705, doi:10.1029/2009GL038671, 2009

Ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate change

Seok-Woo Son
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University,
Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Neil F. Tandon
Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University,
New York, New York, USA

Lorenzo M. Polvani
Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University,
New York, New York, USA

Darryn W. Waugh
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University,
Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Abstract

(1) Climate change in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has been robustly documented in the last several years. It has altered the atmospheric circulation in a surprising number of ways: a rising global tropopause, a poleward intensification of the westerly jet, a poleward shift in storm tracks, a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, and many others. While these changes have been extensively related with anthropogenic warming resulting from the increase in greenhouse gases, their potential link to stratospheric cooling resulting from ozone depletion has only recently been examined and a comprehensive picture is still lacking. Examining model output from the coupled climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4), and grouping them depending on the stratospheric ozone forcing used, we here show that stratospheric ozone affects the entire atmospheric circulation in the SH, from the polar regions to the subtropics, and from the stratosphere to the surface. Furthermore, model projections suggest that the anticipated ozone recovery, resulting from the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, will likely decelerate future climate change resulting from increased greenhouse gases, although it might accelerate surface warming over Antarctica.

Received 16 April 2009; revised 28 June 2009; accepted 13 July 2009; published 11 August 2009.

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