Crops are shrivelling as India faces the spectre of drought but economists say they are still upbeat about the country's economic prospects. They are banking that a strong industrial performance will help offset the impact of the worst monsoon in years in Asia's third largest economy. Analysts have been buoyed by new data showing industrial production jumped by 7.8 percent in June from a year earlier -- its quickest pace in 16 months.
Output was spurred by record low interest rates and government stimulus that have prompted consumers to buy factory-made products such as cars and refrigerators. The figures last week came on top of a slew of other economic indicators suggesting India is starting to rebound from the impact of the worst global downturn since the 1930s. "The domestic economy is slowly but definitely reviving," said Deepak Lalwani, India director at investment house Astaire & Partners in London.
EDIT
For India's 235 million farmers, many of them smallholders eking out a living, a bad monsoon can spell financial disaster, wiping out livelihoods. India's official weather map is a mass of red -- the colour the weather office uses to show "deficient" rains, defined as 20 percent to 59 percent below normal. Some 177 out of India's 626 districts are in the grip of drought with rice crops the worst hit. Only a thin strip along the western coast has received normal rain during this monsoon season, which runs from June to September.
The country "has witnessed two monsoon failures this decade," Astaire's Lalwani noted. In 2004, the rains were 13 percent below normal and in 2002 they were 19 percent below normal, he said. The 2002 drought reduced growth to 3.8 percent, the lowest in 11 years. Growth then rebounded to 8.5 percent the next year when the monsoon revived. This year's rain shortage threatens to be far worse. The monsoon has been 29 percent below normal so far.
EDIT
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/India_faces_drought_but_economists_upbeat_999.html