Penn State Study - Economic Models Neglect Abrupt Climate Shift Potential

Washington, D.C. �-- "Typical economic analysis applied to global warming may be biased because they neglect climate thresholds, according to Penn State researchers. "Economic models of climate change typically assume that changes occur gradually and reversibly," says Klaus Keller, assistant professor of geoscience, Penn State. "However, some environmental effects are not smooth and show a threshold response. For a long time nothing or very little happens and then suddenly a large change occurs."

Keller and William E. Easterling, professor of geography and director of the Penn State Institutes of the Environment, analyze two potential threshold responses to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions � a widespread bleaching of corals and a collapse of oceanic circulation systems. These events could happen suddenly and predictions about whether and when they would happen are uncertain. These potential climate thresholds call into question the results of previous economic analysis of climate change policies, Keller told attendees today (Feb. 18) at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, D.C.

"Economic analyses typically neglect that greenhouse gas emissions might trigger climate thresholds with potentially significant ecological and economic impacts," says Keller. "Analyses neglecting the potential fro negative impacts of greenhouse gas emissions are biased toward too high greenhouse gas emissions. We need more realistic representations of the potential environmental threshold responses in economic analyses."

The uncertainty about the climate thresholds and the potential for an abrupt response pose special challenges to the design of climate policies. One key question is whether the current observation system would deliver an actionable early warning signal about possible ocean circulation changes."

EDIT

http://live.psu.edu/story/10454

How many of our fearless leaders in Congress or the White House have enough scientific literacy to grasp the implications? Assuming you could even get their attention.

We are hosed.

that even if we do something about carbon emissions, we're so far up shit creek, and shit creek is so broad, that even if we had a paddle we couldn't get ourselves out.

In short, we're hosed.

"Observation systems that would yield actionable early warning signal about climate thresholds have the potential to improve climate policies considerably. Implementing such observation systems could very well be a highly profitable investment for future generations."

Ding ding ding! Time is up!

I greatly suspect that the only "observation systems" we'll use will be the recollections of those humans who survive the Great Catastrophe and pass on the oral history to their grandchildren as they huddle around a campfire gnawing on rat bones.

What are the chances we'll do better next time around?