Cold winter coming

Farmers' Almanac Predicts Frigid U.S. Winter

NWS Calling For Warmer-Than-Normal Winter
CLARKE CANFIELD, Associated Press Writer
Posted: 2:28 pm EDT August 31, 2009
Updated: 9:49 pm EDT August 31, 2009

LEWISTON, Maine -- Americans, you might want to check on their sweaters and shovels -- the Farmers' Almanac is predicting a cold winter for many of you.

The venerable almanac's 2010 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says numbing cold will predominate in the country's midsection, from the Rocky Mountains in the West to the Appalachians in the East.

Managing Editor Sandi Duncan says it's going to be an "ice cold sandwich."

"We feel the middle part of the country's really going to be cold -- very, very cold, very, very frigid, with a lot of snow," she said. "On the East and West coasts, it's going to be a little milder. Not to say it's going to be a mild short winter, but it'll be milder compared to the middle of the country."

The almanac, which has been published since 1818, issues annual forecasts using a formula based on sunspots, planetary positions and the effects of the moon.

Live on the east coast and mild is always good! :)

It's been mild since I bought the kids their sleds :(

On the other hand, I don't have to walk the dog on extreme hills in ice and snow AND I don't have to worry about falling on the ice and dislocating my knee again. :)

damn, it seems like every winter it gets freezing cold around here.

lol

It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation asked their new Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a new Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what the weather was going to be. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared. But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked,
"Is the coming winter going to be cold?"
"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the meteorologist at the weather service responded.
So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared. A week later he called the National Weather Service again.
"Is it going to be a very cold winter?"
"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it's going to be a very cold winter."
The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find. Two weeks later he called the National Weather Service again.
"Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?"
"Absolutely," the man replied. "It's going to be one of the coldest winters ever."
"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.
The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting wood like crazy!"

:D

:hi:

I worked at a plant once that for a while we were telling a lot of jokes, morale was high the work was getting done, productivity was way up and we were enjoying our day and then all of a sudden one day the big boss man said no more jokes. After that it was no more jokes while the morale took a dive and the work fell off, personal relationships that had developed and were growing because of the joke sharing was slipping, work wasn't as much fun anymore. They closed down not long after that and I've often wondered if that one thing had anything to do with it.

Farmers' Almanac Predicts Frigid U.S. Winter

NWS Calling For Warmer-Than-Normal Winter


...that's a pretty huge leap in prediction there.

the Weather Service sometimes has a hard time predicting TODAY'S weather, much less for the whole winter!! I always laugh when people say, "it's going to rain Thursday, next week".

I'll never forget our weatherman in Southwest Virginia, if he said it was going to be one way, you were better off assuming the exact opposite.

These days though weathermen are pretty amazing. I live in Colorado, where weather changes by the hour (can be sunny and you can wear shorts, and change to rainy or snowy within a few hours).

This past winter it was 70 degrees out and the weather people said "Major blizzard in two hours! Everyone stay off of the streets!" We went to the store because there wasn't one cloud in the sky, and only a small haze over the horizon. Two hours later, there was 4 inches of snow on the ground in white out conditions. With the traffic and car accidents we experienced it took us two hours to drive 4 miles.

I trust our weather guys much more than I do the ones I had growing up as a kid.

Such is life.

going to be hard winter.....white man gather much firewood!

Might was well flip a coin; the accuracy is about the same:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1161

"In the October 1981 issue of Weatherwise magazine, pages 212-215, John E. Walsh and David Allen performed a check on the accuracy of 60 monthly forecasts of temperature and precipitation from the Old Farmer's Almanac at 32 stations in the U.S. They found that 50.7% of the monthly temperature forecasts and 51.9% of the precipitation forecasts verified with the correct sign. This compares with the 50% success rate expected by chance."

My experience is the Old Farmers is a good guide for the month or season BUT not a good guide for any shorter time period. The cite you use want to hold the Old Farmer's Almanac to a level of Accuracy it has NEVER claimed. He cared less if he missed going to Church this week or next week do to snow, but he wanted to know if how much food he had to store to feed his animals through the winter. The Old Farmer told me he cared less WHEN the last Frost hit, but he wanted to know when that possibility was at the minimum. These are all season to season predictions, not even Month to Month predictions. At that level the Old Farmer's Almanac is the best source he or I have found.

On the other hand day to day predictions (Which is used in the Old Farmer's Almanac) are more a gage on how the above seasonal trends will work out day to day. Accuracy is bad for any given day, but once you accept that these are intended as guides as to what the weather will be NOT actual predictions for those days even those predictions are useful for a farmer.

Now, I read your site and notice that it calls the predictions 50.7% and 51.9% accurate and then compared it to flipping at coin and a coin's 50% accuracy. Over a period of 365 days, if the odds are the same as flipping a coin, then any prediction should edge closer and closer to 50% with an even chance of being BELOW 50% as above it. I notice no statistical analysis is actually done on the predictions, probably because 50.7$% and 51.9% may be over the 90% confidence level used in Statistics (i.e. the .7% and 1.9% difference may be statistically significant i.e. showing a real difference as opposed to just a product of statistical error). Since I do NOT have access to the actual test results I have to rely on the tester to show me the "error" rate for the test, something the author of the cite AND the Author of the test fails to do (i.e. is the .7% and 1.9% a product of statistical error or a real difference? I can NOT tell from the data given for the tester NEVER did a proper statistical analysis of the data).

I make this comment for I remember reading a report on the Old Farmer's Almanac and the National Weather Service Accuracy reports from the 1980s. The National Weather service accuracy on its 90 days forecast was something like 24% accurate, while the Old Farmer's Almanac was 24.1% accurate AND the report reported that the .1% difference was statistically significant (yes 24% accuracy is not something to brag about, but it was the two best estimate of the time period). I wish I had a cite for that report but at least it gave a statement as to say whether the .1% difference was real or a product of standard statistical error, something your report does NOT do.