Peak Oil and the IEA (What they don’t want you to know…)Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief-Economist of the International Energy Agency (the agency which advices OECD countries on oil, including the US) and “one of the most powerful men on earth” according to the British newspaper, The Guardian<1> has lately attracted extensive media attention.
Indeed, in a recent interview to the British newspaper, The Independent<2>, Dr. Birol was reported of saying that the world was heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery.
The article added, “In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated”.
On the 26th of November 2008, I sent an interview request to Dr. Birol, in order to discuss how Peak Oil would affect International Relations (my degree’s dissertation topic). While he was first “delighted” to meet with me (as reported by his assistant), he then cancelled the meeting. Nevertheless, Dr. Birol asked me to meet one of his “senior colleagues” at the IEA, Olivier Rech.
On the 18th of December 2008, I met Mr. Rech at the IEA HQ in Paris.
Mr. Rech, who was a key contributor to the 2008 WEO, clearly recognised the reality and seriousness of the impending crisis (yes, Peak Oil is real and yes, ASPO is likely to be right). As an example, he declared that:
“What we understand today by mobility, such as spending a weekend at 1000 km, maybe in 20 years, the height of exoticism will be to go on a weekend at 20km of distance”<15>.During the conversation, Mr. Rech also mentioned the difficult topic of global population in a post-Peak Oil world:
“(Dr. Colin) Campbell effectively says that agricultural production will collapse because fertilisers will run out, by a lack of fuel and that the variable of adjustment to the problem will be the global population. Frankly I don’t know. It is so cataclysmic that me, I, I reach my limits. I reach my intellectual limits on that.”<16> So while the British Government (and many others) declares that it "does not feel the need to hold contingency plans specifically for the eventuality of crude oil supplies peaking between now and 2020"<17>, a senior energy expert at the IEA –the body that advices our governments on oil- who wrote part of the 2008 WEO, cannot rule out the death of a significant part of humankind in the coming decades.
The following analysis on the Peak Oil debate from Chris Holtom, the former head of British military intelligence, nowadays a strategic consultant to the oil & gas industry, gives valuable information:
“There is a pack of deceit and economy with the truth here - some wilful, some born of ignorance, or fear of "group-think" related to stock price or employment. It needs careful and persuasive exposure of agendas, motives and possible consequences... Peak Oil is a potential Black Swan event, where the consequences are so great that after it we spend most of our time justifying why we didn’t anticipate it… It is a global issue and global bodies need the clout and courage to address them.”<25>This article was originally submitted to The Oil Drum<27> (one of the leading Peak Oil news webpage). While the editors initially accepted to publish the article, at the very last moment they changed their mind. In other words, an article on Peak Oil was censored by… The Oil Drum (TOD). The reasons why?
“I know there are at least a few people who think we should be putting the IEA in as favorable light as we can. So I have decided not to run it…” (Gail the Actuary, Editor, 2 September 2009).However, to be fair with TOD, some of their members did not support this action:
“Sorry to hear about what's going on regarding your article and TOD… 1) this is something that TOD should publish, and 2) this kind of censorship, as you point out, isn't something that we should take any part in.” (Jeff Vail, 2 September 2009).At the end, they wouldn’t accept it. If even TOD starts to censor information on Peak Oil…