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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-15-05 09:40 PM
Original message
Multi-Center Study Shows Link Between Residential Radon And Lung Cancer
Two University of Iowa researchers were part of a large multi-center study that provides compelling direct evidence of an association between prolonged residential radon exposure and lung cancer risk.

The study, an analysis of data pooled from seven different North American residential radon studies, demonstrates an 11 to 21 percent increased lung cancer risk at average residential radon concentrations of approximately 3.0 picocuries per liter of air, during an exposure period of 5 to 30 years. The lung cancer risk increased with increasing radon exposure. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s current action level for residential radon is 4.0 picocuries per liter.

"This analysis, based on the largest radon data set assembled in North America, agrees with a similar large-scale radon pooled analysis performed concurrently in Europe. The North American and European pooling provides unambiguous and direct evidence of an increased lung cancer risk even at residential radon exposure levels below the U.S. EPA’s action level," according to R. William Field, Ph.D., UI associate professor of occupational and environmental health and epidemiology, and a co-author of the study, which is reported in the March 2005 issue of the journal Epidemiology. Charles F. Lynch, M.D., Ph.D., professor of epidemiology, also contributed to the research.

Radon is the second-leading cause of lung cancer in the United States with an estimated 21,000 lung cancer deaths each year related to radon exposure, according to EPA. A radioactive, invisible, odorless gas that comes from the decay of naturally occurring uranium in the earth’s soil, radon can accumulate in enclosed areas, such as underground mines and homes. <snip>

http://www.innovations-report.com/html/reports/studies/report-41768.html
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-15-05 10:00 PM
Response to Original message
1. This is sort of old news, older than you are I bet.
Edited on Tue Mar-15-05 10:01 PM by NNadir
One of my most admired scientists, Bernard L. Cohen, has been studying this for about three decades.

Believe it or not, there is a subset of people who believe, quite adamnantly apparently, that radon is good for them. This was covered in a relatively recent (at the end of 2003 or early 2004, I think) issue of National Geographic where the reporter went down to a radon rich abandoned silver mine near Basin, Montana with a bunch of folks who swear that Radon cures their arthritis and other ailments.

http://www.legendsofamerica.com/MT-MerryWidowMine.html

The mine is called the "Merry Widow Health Mine."

I have no idea if these people are crazy or not. I have between 1 to 4 pCi/l of Radon in my basement, depending on the time of year that I test it, and I try to ventilate frequently, but not to the point of stupidity. On the other hand, I don't go out of my way to make sure I get a dose of Radon either. I note that I am an old fart, and my joints frequently hurt, in spite of my radon. Thus in my personal clinical trial, radon doesn't cure my aches and pains.

Radon however does have medicinal use. Many people who have had prostrate cancer have been treated with the insertion of radon seeds in that gland. Apparently the treatment works quite well.
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-16-05 10:57 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Your brachytherapy info seems about forty years out-of-date, of ...
... historical interest, perhaps, but not definitive with respect to current practice: radon seeds are not currently popular.

Pasteau and Degrais in Paris used radium to treat prostatic cancer in 1907, radium was further used with different techniques including radium needles and radon seeds during twenty years. In 1951, Flock advocated colloidal radioactive gold with interesting palliative results. Permanent gold seeds implant was also used. But until 1970 with the appearance of Iodine 125 grain, brachytherapy was not widely employed ... However, the technique is a somewhat complex surgical procedure and the cases have to be carefully selected ... Removable implants with 192Ir wire (or nylon ribbon seeds) are obviously simpler and safer to implant through perineal route ...
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=4092108&dopt=Abstract

... Brachytherapy of the prostate dates back to 1911, when Pasteau published the first case in medical literature. Utilizing a technique rather crude by today’s standards, Pasteau used a catheter to insert radium into the prostate urethra. Although the results showed fairly good local control of the cancer, the complications were too high to be considered acceptable ...
http://www.pioa.org/c_brachy.html

... In 1951, Dr. Flocks studied an 80-year-old patient with extensive stage T-4 hormone refractory carcinoma of the prostate. Anecdotally, he was planning to place radon seeds into the prostate, but unfortunately radon seeds were unavailable. Instead he injected 60mc colloidal radioactive gold in 20cc through out the enlarged prostate ... Flocks would champion the use of Au198 ...
http://www.uihealthcare.com/depts/med/urology/flocks/section5.html

... (The) radionuclides most commonly used... are iodine-125 and palladium-103. They are .. used to treat prostate cancer. Gold-198, and to a .. lesser extent, cobalt-60, have also been used. Radon seeds were .. made by filling a hollow gold tube .. with radon and using pliers to pinch the tube .. into .. appropriate lengths. The activities might range from 0.05 to 5 millicuries per seed. Since radon has a 3.8 day half-life, it was common to leave the .. seeds in the patient ... Nevertheless, they would contain some residual activity due to the long lived radon decay product lead-210. The idea of using gold originated with Gino Failla (ca. 1920) at Memorial Hospital in New York. Until then, radon had been sealed in glass, but the betas emitted by the radon decay products caused necrosis of the tissue in the immediate vicinity of the seeds. Gold, on the other hand, filtered out the betas while still allowing the gamma rays .. to escape. Radon seeds were implanted in a wide range of tissues: cervix, mouth, tongue, tonsils, rectum, bladder, etc. In the 1960s, radon seeds fell out of favor and were replaced with gold-198 grains ...
http://www.orau.org/ptp/collection/brachytherapy/seeds.htm

... The first radiation therapy of choroidal melanoma was performed by implanting radon seeds directly into the tumor. The technique was then modified by placing the seeds episclerally. Cobalt plaques were successfully used but because of their high energy, surrounding tissues could not be adequately shielded. Currently the most common isotope, 125I radiation therapy is considered excellent for intraocular tumors because since it lacks alpha or beta rays, its penetrance allows the treatment of large tumors and the seeds are commercially available and can be reused ...
http://www.dcmsonline.org/jax-medicine/2000journals/sept2000/choroidal.htm


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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-16-05 07:14 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. No, it's not out of date. My father in law, a physician, has prostrate
cancer. I'm aware of his condition in some detail, and his treatment.

Moreover, unlike you, I have worked with I-125 extensively, for years in fact, AND cobalt-57, and tritium. Somehow I strongly doubt you have done any of these things.

Some people have experience and some people surf the net to try to sound knowledgable.

Thank you for your most interesting googled links about the history of radiotherapy, though. It's really an emerging field with conjugation technology, I field in which I am considering entering after my extensive recent review of the chemistry of Technetium.

Modern radiotherapy and conjugate based imaging is a winner and it will save many lives.
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-16-05 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Yeah, yeah.

Re: Death and Cremation of Prostate Seed Implant Patients
... It is possible that if the person was old enough they could have been implanted with radon seeds ...



A Century's Challenges: Historical Overview of Radiation Sources in the USA (PDF)
... The last US radon generating plant was operated by Radium Chemical Company at its Queens, New York, site using apparatus designed by Giaocchino Failla. It ceased operation in 1981, thus ending the possibility of new radon seeds entering the gold recycling stream ...



HUMAN RADIATION STUDIES: REMEMBERING THE EARLY YEARS
Oral History of Radiologist Hymer L. Friedell, M.D., Ph.D.
... FRIEDELL: ... They used to use a lot of what were known as radon seeds. Really, little fine tubes of gold tubing, which were sealed off at the ends, and contained radon. Then you measured them so you had an idea of the dose, and then you could insert them into the tumors ...
FISHER: They didn't last very long. Why did they choose radon seeds over radium?
FRIEDELL: First of all, the radium had to be removed. The radon seeds could be left in there because they were decaying. The half-life of radon, what is it, three-point-eight days, or something? ...

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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-16-05 09:19 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. The conjugate imaging DOES look nice. But to succeed, you'll need ...
Edited on Wed Mar-16-05 09:20 PM by struggle4progress
... a better chemical understanding than you exhibited in this thread

<edit: link>
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-17-05 09:13 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. I'll let you know when I'm interested in your scientific opinion.
Edited on Thu Mar-17-05 10:04 PM by NNadir
Don't wait up all night to hear of that interest.

I'm curious though about this interest in Au-198 to the extent I read these regurgitations. Maybe one of our new found nuclear experts, who now claim to be experts in radiotherapy and to have been "radiation safety officers," is spite of demonstrable ignorance of the simplest laws of physics, and demonstrably terrified radiological paranoia, can do some more googling to find out how Au-198 is made. It will be real fun to hear a search engine generated regurgitations on this subject. I'll help: Natural gold, which is 100% Au-197, is the starting material.

This is off topic, and totally unrelated ;-) to the matter at hand, but I've been thinking for some reason of Sheridan's play The Rivals which included the famous character of Mrs. Malaprop, whose name was ultimately to become a coinage in English.

Mrs. Malaprop knew just enough about elegant language to demonstrate her complete ignorance of language in general.
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-17-05 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. It's completely off the topic of the thread, which is radon. And, of ...
... course, I'm not really interested enough in radionuclide synthesis to spend any time trying to sort this out, although I must admit the subject would have intellectual appeal for me in a less political era.

But since your hint is so extremely suggestive, and the most cursory examination of easily available material indicates that Au197 (with a thermal neutron capture cross-section around 10^4 barn) is so easily activated that the reaction Au197 + n -> Au198 is used in a standard measurement of thermal neutron fluence, I would naively choose this synthetic route, although perhaps you know some sly alternate pathway to the product.
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-17-05 11:37 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Good googling. There is just one resonance at 10^4 barns but close enough


I'm surprised though that you can type the word "neutron" without breaking your middle finger. In your new status as nuclear pontificator maybe you can tell us where those neutrons come from. Let me guess their solar neutrons.

Oh and do you protest the machinery where this Au-198 is made? Isn't it too dangerous for humanity?

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etherealtruth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-16-05 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. I think that the belief may stem from...
...interpretation of the dose response curve (for radon) which is often represented as a flattened out backward "J" shape, which at first glance may give the impression of a "protective" dose. It's a really simplistic guess, but sometimes the simplest explanations work.
http://math.berkeley.edu/~sachs/sachsresearch/papers0102/radon2.html
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-16-05 03:24 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. I think I'd be very surprised if you were old enough to remember ...
Edited on Wed Mar-16-05 03:27 PM by struggle4progress
... the beginning of this particular story, which can be traced back to the end of the Middle Ages:


Toxicological Sciences 64, 4-6 (2001)
PROFILES IN TOXICOLOGY
A Short History of Lung Cancer
Hanspeter Witschi
ITEH and Department of Molecular Biosciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California 95616

... There was, however, one lung cancer where it had been obvious for a long time that it might be caused by an external agent. As early as 1500, attention was called to this particular condition. In two regions of Germany and Czechoslovakia, Schneeberg and Joachimsthal, there were productive mines, yielding first silver, later nickel, cobalt, bismuth, and arsenic. The word "dollar" actually stems from the word "Thaler;" coins minted from the pure silver of Joachimsthal were called "Joachimsthaler" (i.e., originating from Joachimsthal) or, abbreviated, "Thaler." The miners working these mines developed almost invariably a deadly disease, called "Bergkrankheit" (mountain sickness). Between 1876 and 1938, 60 to 80% of all miners died from the disease which, on average, lasted 25 years. Certain regions of the mines were known as "death pits," where all workers got sick. As a result, lung cancer in miners was recognized as an occupational disease—and the miners therefore entitled for compensation—in 1926 in Germany and in 1932 in Czechoslovakia. While it was thought that chemical constituents of the ore that was produced, most notably arsenic, might be involved in the etiology of these lung cancers, it was early on suspected that "radium emanation" was the main culprit. Measurements published in 1924 in a German physics journal confirmed that the air in the mines contained high concentrations of radon gas, the highest more than 18,000 picocuires per liter ...


By WWII, it was completely clear that radon was involved:


Am J Ind Med. 1993 Feb;23(2):355-68
Schneeberg lung disease and uranium mining in the Saxon Ore Mountains (Erzgebirge).
Schuttmann W.
Faculty of Industrial Hygiene, Department of Health, Berlin-Biesdorf, Germany

The so-called Schneeberg lung disease is a form of bronchial or alveolar carcinoma caused by the effects of the radioactive gas radon and of its radioactive short half-life daughter products. This type of radiation-induced occupational cancer is the most common and the most important radiation injury among workers occupationally exposed to ionizing radiation. There have been many deaths from lung cancer, especially in the Soviet uranium mines in the Erzgebirge of Saxony in the former German Democratic Republic. The history of disease in these miners extends over five centuries; the first observations of their health hazard start in the Middle Ages. The discovery of the lung cancer component was made toward the end of the nineteenth century, and the suspicion that a connection might exist between this cancer type and exposure to ionizing radiation was voiced at the beginning of the twentieth century. In the first half of this century, further research was carried out on this disease in the Schneeberg area of the Erzgebirge. Before the end of World War II, guidelines were set up to define the acceptable limits of radon exposure in the ore mines of Saxony ...


The old Atomic Energy Commission, however, with its eye fixed on warheads and power plants, and lacking any mandate to safeguard worker health, was not terribly interested in the topic:


ACHRE Report
ACHRE Report
Chapter 12: The Uranium Miners

... In 1942, Wilhelm C. Hueper, a German émigré who was founding director of the environmental cancer section of the National Cancer Institute (NCI), one of the National Institutes of Health, published a review in English of the literature on the European miners suggesting that radon gas was implicated in causing lung cancer. He eliminated nonoccupational factors because excess lung cancer showed up only among miners. He also eliminated occupational factors other than radon because these other factors had not caused lung cancer in other occupational settings. Among Hueper's peers, dissenters, such as Egon Lorenz, also of the NCI, focused on contaminants other than radon in the mine, the possible genetic susceptibility of the population, and the calculated doses to the lung, which seemed too low to cause cancer because the role of radon daughters--which the radioactive polonium, bismuth, and lead decay products of radon gas are known as--was not yet understood.

At the time its own program began, the AEC had many reasons for concern that the experience of the Czech and German miners portended excess lung cancer deaths for uranium miners in the United States. The factors included the following: (1) No respected scientist challenged the finding that the Czech and German miners had an elevated rate of lung cancer; (2) these findings were well known to the American decision makers; (3) as Hueper points out, genetic and nonoccupational factors could be rejected; and (4) radon standards existed for other industries, and there was no reason to think that conditions in mines ruled out the need for such standards. Moreover, as soon as the government began to measure airborne radon levels in Western U.S. uranium mines, they found higher levels than those reported in the European mines where excess cancers had been observed ...

One important hole in Hueper's argument was that the calculated dose of radiation from the radon in European mines did not seem high enough to cause cancer. But when William Bale of the University of Rochester and John Harley, a scientist at the AEC's New York Operations Office (NYOO) who was working toward his doctorate at Renssaelear Polytechnic Institute, were able to show and explain in 1951 the importance of radioactive particles that attached to bits of dust and remained in the lung, the discovery had a tremendous impact. When doses to the lung were recalculated using Bale and Harley's models, they increased 76 times, making them high enough to explain the observed cancer rates. Recognizing the importance of radon daughters also explained why animal experiments using pure radon gas had not caused cancer.

In the absence of Atomic Energy Commission willingness to press for relatively safe tolerance levels for radon in U.S. mines and to institute an effective program of mine ventilation to reduce the hazard, and a mixed, but mainly unsatisfactory response from the states, the stage was set for intergovernmental buck passing and decades of study, a course that resulted in the premature deaths of hundreds of miners. An analysis of eleven underground miners' studies published in 1994 by the National Cancer Institute supports the view that radon daughters are responsible for an even greater number of lung cancers than previously believed ...


The discovery of the magnitude of residential doses surprised folks:


History
... Elevated levels of radon in homes were not recognized as a potential public health threat until the mid-1980's. Mr. Stanley Watras, a worker at the Limerick Nuclear Power Plant located in eastern Pennsylvania, set off a radiation detector upon entering the nuclear power plant. At the time the nuclear power plant was under construction and had not received its nuclear fuel. The utility discovered extremely elevated levels of radon in his new home. The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania began testing homes for radon and found elevated levels of radon in them as well ...


There have been a number of large epidemiology studies since then. Here's one:


THE IOWA RADON LUNG CANCER STUDY
Phase I Completed

The Iowa Radon Lung Cancer Study was a large-scale epidemiology study initiated in 1993 and funded by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS). The study assessed the risk posed by residential radon exposure. The 5-year study was performed in Iowa and the participants were women throughout Iowa who lived in their current home for at least 20 years. Over a thousand Iowa women took part in the study. Four hundred and thirteen of the participants were women who had developed lung cancer, the remaining 614 participants were controls who did not have lung cancer. The study was limited to women, because they historically tend to spend more time at home and they have less occupational exposure to other lung carcinogens.

The epidemiologic study was performed in Iowa for several reasons. Iowa has the highest average radon concentrations in the United States. In addition, women in Iowa tend to move less than most other states, which makes calculation of their past radon exposure easier. Iowa was also selected because it has a quality National Cancer Institute SEER cancer registry, which helped us identify women who developed lung cancer. Close to 60% of the basement measurements for both cases (participants with lung cancer) and controls (participants without lung cancer) exceeded the EPA's action level. Twenty-eight percent of the living areas for the controls and 33% of the living areas for the cases exceeded the EPA's action level of 4 pCi/L ...

The Iowa Radon Lung Cancer Study had several strengths. First, independent pathologic review was performed for 96 percent of the cases. Second, the study was carried out in Iowa, which has the highest mean radon concentrations in the United States. Third, the high radon concentrations in conjunction with a strict quality assurance protocol contributed to accurate and precise radon measurements. Fourth, the IRLCS criteria requiring occupancy in the current home for at least the last 20 years eliminated the need to impute radon measurements from missing homes. Fifth, the linkage between radon measurements and retrospective participant mobility allowed for a refined exposure estimate ...


Release: May 25, 2000
UI study: Residential radon exposure poses significant lung cancer risk

IOWA CITY, Iowa -- ... Even at the EPA action level of 4 pCi/L, an approximate 50 percent excess lung cancer risk was found among the women in the study after correcting for the impact of smoking, according to Charles Lynch, UI professor of epidemiology and the study's principal investigator.

"What this indicates is that residential radon exposure is a significant cause of lung cancer," Lynch said ...



Yes, epidemiologists consider newer, better analyses to be news:


Radon Risk for Lung Cancer Back in the Spotlight
Second Leading Cause of Lung Cancer in US

... Darby and colleagues calculated that lung cancer risk increases by 8.4% for every 100 becquerels per cubic meter (Bq/m3) of radon indoors. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommends taking action to lower indoor radon when the gas reaches concentrations of 4 picocuries per liter (pCi/L), which is equivalent to 148 Bq/m3.

"These results are consistent with those of earlier studies, including one from the United States," said Elizabeth Ward, PhD, director of surveillance research for the American Cancer Society. "But this study has larger numbers of people resulting in greater statistical power and better ability to separate the results of radon exposure from the results of smoking" ...


I afraid Bernie's name isn't coming up much in this long history of people trying to sort out the "Bergkrankheit."

<edit: link script>
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-16-05 04:17 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. Your mine sitters sound like the Radithor enthusiasts:

Radithor (ca. 1928)
... In 1928, the Pittsburgh industrialist and one-time U.S. amateur golf champion (1906) injured himself on a party train following a Harvard-Yale football game. At the recommendation of his doctor, he began drinking Radithor, and he continued to do so long after the injury healed - he averaged three bottles a day for two years. Byers stopped consuming Radithor in 1930 when his teeth started falling out and holes appeared in his skull ...



Radioactive Curative Devices and Spas
Paul W. Frame
Oak Ridge Associated Universities
This article was originally published in the Oak Ridger newspaper, 5 November 1989

... As one might expect, the American Medical Association (AMA) was concerned that the public was being fleeced by charlatans. To prevent this the AMA established guidelines (in effect from 1916 to 1929) that emanators seeking AMA approval had to generate more than 2 µCi of radon per liter of water in a 24-hour period. Few devices (even the famous Revigator) could meet these exacting standards ...

While almost everyone recognized the efficacy of radon in water, many felt that the ingestion or application of radium (the parent of radon) would be even more effective. And so, in the 1920s and early 1930s, it was possible to purchase radium-containing salves, beauty creams, toothpaste (radon was thought to fight dental decay and improve the digestion), ear plugs, chocolate bars, soap, suppositories, and even contraceptives ...

In comparison, the Radiendocrinator was made of refined radium, encased in 14-carat gold, and shipped in an embossed velvet-lined leatherette case - all for only $150. In general, the Radiendocrinator was meant to be placed over the endocrine glands. Giving one example as to how their Radiendocrinator might be used, the manufacturers advised men to "Wear the adaptor like any athletic strap. This puts the instrument under the scrotum as it should be. Wear at night. Radiate as directed" ...

Radioactive quack cures, like old soldiers, never die ...

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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-17-05 07:15 PM
Response to Reply #1
10. Oh, here's Bernie Cohen:
Edited on Thu Mar-17-05 07:17 PM by struggle4progress

... For example, the 6000-member Health Physics Society, the principal organization for radiation protection scientists, has issued a position paper stating, "Below 10 rad...risks of health effects are either too small to be observed or are non-existent". In fact, substantial evidence exists that low-level radiation may even be protective against cancer—a view known as hormesis ...
BL Cohen


He's the one who's been busily arguing that radon is GOOD for folks what smokes. What a clever, clever fellow! But, somehow, his idea hasn't won unanimous approval in the epidemiological community:


J Radiol Prot. 1998 Sep;18(3):163-74
Effects of small doses of ionising radiation
Doll R
... The idea, based on ecological observations, that small doses protect against the development of cancer is refuted by the effect of radon in houses. New observations on the atomic bomb survivors have raised afresh the possibility that small doses may also have other somatic effects.


Dissent sometimes appears even in the often shameless Health Physics Society organ:


Health Phys. 1998 Jul;75(1):11-7
Residential 222Rn exposure and lung cancer: testing the linear no-threshold theory with ecologic data.
Smith BJ, Field RW, Lynch CF.

In most rigorous epidemiologic studies, such as case-control and cohort studies, the basic unit of analysis is the individual. Each individual is classified in terms of exposure and disease status. However, in ecologic epidemiologic studies, the unit of analysis is some aggregate group of individuals. Summary measures of exposure and disease frequency are obtained for each aggregate, and the analyses focus on determining whether or not the aggregates with high levels of exposure also display high disease rates. The ecologic study design has major limitations, including ecologic confounding and cross level bias. Cohen has attempted to circumvent these limitations by invoking the linear no-threshold theory of radiation carcinogenesis to derive aggregate "exposures" from individual-level associations. He asserts that, "while an ecologic study cannot determine whether radon causes lung cancer, it can test the validity of a linear-no threshold relationship between them." Cohen compares his testing of the linear no-threshold relationship between radon exposure and lung cancer to the practice of estimating the number of deaths from the person-rem collective dose, dividing the person-rem by the number of individuals in the population to derive the individual average dose, and then determining individual average risk by dividing the number of deaths by the number of individuals in the population. We show that Cohen's erroneous assumptions concerning occupancy rates and smoking effects result in the use of the wrong model to test the linear no-threshold theory. Because of these assumptions, the ecologic confounding and cross level bias associated with Cohen's model invalidate his findings. Furthermore, when more recent Iowa county lung cancer incidence rates are regressed on Cohen's mean radon levels, the reported large negative associations between radon exposure and lung cancer are no longer obtained.



Health Phys. 1998 Jul;75(1):4-10
On the discrepancy between epidemiologic studies in individuals of lung cancer and residential radon and Cohen's ecologic regression.
Lubin JH.

... inordinate attention has been given to the discrepant results of Cohen, in which a negative estimate is observed for the regression of county mortality rates for lung cancer on estimated county radon levels. This paper demonstrates that Cohen's ecologic analysis cannot produce valid inference on the exposure-response relationship for individuals unless lung cancer risk factors (smoking, age, occupation, etc.) for individuals are statistically uncorrelated with indoor radon level within counties or unless risk effects for radon and other factors are additive. Both of these assumptions are contradicted in the literature. Thus, contrary to common assumption, when a linear no-threshold model is the true model for radon risk for individuals, higher average radon concentration for a county does not necessarily imply a higher lung cancer rate for the county. In addition, valid inference from county-level ecologic analysis and the elimination of the ecologic bias cannot be achieved with the addition of county-wide summary variables (including "stratification" variables) to the regression equation. Using hypothetical data for smoking and radon and assuming a true positive association for radon and lung cancer for individuals, the analysis demonstrates that a negative county-level ecologic regression can be induced when correlation coefficients for smoking and radon within county are in the range -0.05 to 0.05. Since adverse effects for radon at low exposures are supported by analysis of miner data (all data and data restricted only to low cumulative exposures), a meta-analysis of indoor radon studies, and molecular and cellular studies, and since ecologic regressions are burdened by severe limitations, the negative results from Cohen's analysis are most likely due to bias and should be rejected.


Cohen, who is, after all, a physicist and not an epidemiologist, appears not to understand the serious limitations of his method:


Eur J Epidemiol. 2000 Apr;16(4):365-9
Migration bias in ecologic studies.
Tong S.

Differential migration may provoke bias in an epidemiological assessment of the public health risks from exposure to environmental agents, particularly in ecologic studies of health outcomes with a long latency or induction period. The potential impact of migration bias on epidemiological research is complex, and it depends not only on the direction of the factor-related migration, but also on its extent. This study shows that even a small amount of differential migration can bias the assessment of the exposure outcome relationship. Migration bias may result from a number of circumstances that are related to the way in which 'populations' are defined and ascertained. It is important to understand and minimise this type of bias in epidemiological research.


Meanwhile, radon exposure, far from serving as a cornupia of healthful benefits, continues to cause lung cancer:


Chest. 2003;123:21S-49S
Epidemiology of Lung Cancer*
Anthony J. Alberg, PhD, MPH and Jonathan M. Samet, MD, MS
... As reviewed below, population attributable risk estimates for lung cancer indicate that in the United States, active smoking is responsible for 90% of lung cancer cases, occupational exposures to carcinogens account for approximately 9 to 15% of lung cancer cases, radon causes 10% of lung cancer cases, and outdoor air pollution accounts for perhaps 1 to 2% of lung cancer cases ...



<edit:spelling>
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-16-05 03:58 PM
Response to Original message
5. self-delete
Edited on Wed Mar-16-05 04:16 PM by struggle4progress
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