How'd you like this guy as your financial adviser

GettysbergII

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Sun Mar-20-05 10:51 PM
Original message

How'd you like this guy as your financial adviser

http://investorplace.com/free/general31.htm?articleKeycode=5CV189

The Myth of Expensive Oil

The reasons for high gas prices are well-known and pretty much agreed on. And each one is dead wrong, as you'll see.

• We're running out. We're entering a New Dark Ages, a chilly post-Petroleum Era. Demand is exceeding supply—largely because of China's growth. Terrorists are disrupting supplies—and plan to take control of Saudi oil fields any day now.
• The Russian oil business is in turmoil and exports could be cut off.

Wrong on All Counts

1. Oil production has not peaked, nor is it declining.
Dozens of giant oil fields have been discovered in the past few years. What’s more, all are outside the tinderbox of the Middle East. One day we will run out, but that day, according to every geologist who is not on the lunatic fringe, is 25 generations from now. Then, perhaps, we'll all be huddled under windmills (or, more likely, we'll be using free hydrogen power).

2. Increase in demand is running at around 3 million barrels a day, but increase in supply is running at 3.5 million barrels, according to the International Energy Agency. This half a million barrels a day excess supply situation has not changed—in the last 8 years. Even a mild tap on the brakes from China (growth recently slowed 25%, by the way), and we'd be up to our necks in oil!

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Dogmudgeon

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Mon Mar-21-05 02:49 AM
Response to Original message

1. Assertions without evidence

Just once I'd like to see some evidence offered for the rosy scenario these "bulls" describe. Especially the dozens of new, giant oil fields that have been discovered.

--p!

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BlueEyedSon

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Mon Mar-21-05 05:30 AM
Response to Original message

2. Everything he is saying is wrong, BUT it is possible that $57 oil

Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 05:31 AM by BlueEyedSon

is a temporary short term peak. It could easily pull back 10-20%.

Longer term though, the rise in oil prices is just beginning.

"Mild tap on the brakes from China"... ha ha ha give ME a break!

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GettysbergII

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Mon Mar-21-05 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. Particularly in light of Bartletts 3-14-05 presentation in Congress

and the recent International Energy Agency report:
http://www.energybulletin.net/4733.html

Peak Oil Presentation in the US Congress
by Roscoe Bartlett

<snip> What now? Where do we go now? One observer, Matt Savinar, who has thoroughly researched the options, and this is not the most optimistic assessment, by the way, but may be somewhat realistic, he starts out by saying, Dear Readers, civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. I hope not. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse Bible sect or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is a scientific conclusion of the best-paid, most widely respected geologists, physicists and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by the phenomenon known as global peak oil.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f20cfb8a-920d-11d9-bca5-00000e2511c8.html
IEA says world must turn away from oil

The rapid rise in global oil demand should lead the industrialised world to promote alternatives to oil as well as energy conservation, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.

The warning, from the West's energy policy adviser, signals a sharp turnaround by the IEA, which has previously tried to cool oil markets by blaming prices on speculators and short-term supply disruptions.

The question has to be whether the shill is merely imcompetent or downright malicious. Of course a short term retreat in price is always a possiblity but long term we are all just fucked.

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fedsron2us

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Mon Mar-21-05 06:46 PM
Response to Original message

4. This joker is advising people to buy airline stocks.

I guess he must own a lot of bad investments in this sector that he is keen to offload on the suckers. Personally I prefer to listen to the advise of Warren Buffet who says that every time he's thinking of buying airline stocks, he calls a special helpline number and they talk him out of it.

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