Chinese Academy/WWF Study Projects 2C Rise In Yangtze Basin Temps By 2060, With Manifold Impacts

Rising temperatures will expose China's Yangtze River basin to extreme weather such as severe floods, drought and storms that could threaten cities such as Shanghai, a new report has said. In the coming decades, global warming will increase glacier melt in the Himalayan reaches of the Yangtze, diminish food production in the basin and lead to rising waters in coastal regions, said the World Wide Fund for Nature, which co-authored the report with Chinese research institutes.

"Extreme climate events such as storms and drought disasters will increase as climate change continues to alter our planet," Xu Ming, lead researcher on the report, said in a statement released Tuesday. "If we take the right steps now, adaptation measures will pay for themselves."

Up to 400 million people live in the Yangtze River basin, which cuts a swathe through the middle of China and includes some of the nation's most productive agricultural lands. Over the next 50 years, temperatures in the basin will climb by an average of 1.5-2.0 degrees Celsius (2.7-4.0 degrees Fahrenheit), leading to an increased number of natural disasters, the report said.

The basin has already seen a spike in flooding, heat waves and drought over the past two decades as temperatures rose by an average of 1.04 degrees Celsius between 1990 and 2005, it said.

EDIT

http://www.terradaily.com/2007/091111061308.fvga1f1v.html

followed by only a 2 degree increase over the subsequent 55 years? What assumptions went into that guess?