Yet More Comedy Gold From CERA & Dan Yergin - With Notes From The Last Times Around

EDIT

Let me begin with a reason why I tend not to be immediately and totally swayed by the thinking behind the CERA report, and their conclusion that:

"Global oil productive capacity will grow though 2030 with no evidence of a peak of supply before that time."

It has not been that long since we were assured that production of oil from Mexico would be maintained at levels of 4 mbd through 2015. In 2005 we have:

"CERA said that oil from non-conventional sources would widen to 35% of capacity in 2015 compared with 10% in 1990. The research points to growth in output from ultra deepwater drilling in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, Angola and Nigeria; 250% more heavy oil production capacity from Canada and Venezuela; and the expansion of condensate and natural gas liquids to 23 million barrels per day from 14 million barrels per day currently."

The EIA is anticipating that Mexico will produce an average of 2.9 mbd in 2009, falling to 2.7 mbd in 2010. And the latest chart from CERA (downloadable at their site) shows a much reduced increase in production of the heavy oils by 2015, for a start. CERA has, unfortunately, not only continued to shine an overoptimistic light on future production, but has also tended (as sadly it has also done in the past) to gloss over some of the problems - vide:

Though a peak in global production is not imminent, there are major hurdles above ground to negotiate.

These surface hurdles no doubt include the minor details as to how to get significantly more production out of Iraq.

EDIT

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50741