Goteborg University - Mediterrenean Surface Temperature Spike; Likely Problems For Nile Delta

Mods: Press Release.



Global climatic changes may affect Mediterranean water by increasing sea level and changing the distribution of surface and deep water salinity and temperature. Rising sea level would destroy parts of protective sand belt along Mediterranean coast especially of the Egyptian delta coast which have elevations less than two meters above sea level. In addition to that this delta coast sand belt is weekend due to reduction of river sediment flow after construction of Aswan high dam in 1964. Rising in sea level will make this delta vulnerable to salt water intrusion, flooding, and erosion so it is expected to sink in the near future. After destroying of this sand belt, groundwater will be saline and about 4500 km2 of good farmland will be lost. Furthermore natural gas projects will be destroyed and more than 6 million people will be displaced. In addition, coastal freshwater lagoons will be altered (threatening one-third of Egypt's fisheries). Changing the distribution of surface and deep water salinity and temperature will affect the current system in the Mediterranean which is very important for navigational process.

Preliminary studies showed that the exchange through the Gibraltar strait can be modeled as a baroclinic two layer exchanges. Descriptive statistical analyses of sea level data showed that the sea level is increased with time within the whole Mediterranean Basin. In addition, there is a simple change in water temperature and salinity. Sea temperature (figure1a) and salinity (figure1b) changes affect current system in the Mediterranean and so the navigation processes.

Our research aims to study temporal and spatial distribution of sea level in the Mediterranean Sea. Present 2-D simple model to study sea level variation through and a cross Gibraltar strait is also included. We used this model with sea level observations and climatologically data to calculate the amount of inflow Atlantic water and barotropic volume flux in the period start from January 1990 to December 2008. In addition to that modeling the variations of water (salinity) and heat (temperature) balances in the Mediterranean Sea will be studied. The approach will follow similar as has been studied within the BALTEX program for the Baltic Sea (Omstedt et al., 2004) including modeling and closing the water and heat balances (Omstedt and Nohr, 2004). Finally the work aims in studying the effect of Mediterranean climate change on sea level, salinity, and sea temperature, current and how these changes will affect the coastal area in future.

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http://www.oceanclimate.se/research_medi_climate_change.htm