Developing countries were today shocked by new UN data showing that rich nations will be able to increase their carbon emissions by up to 8% if they take advantage of a series of major loopholes in their pledges.
Instead of reducing emissions by a minimum of 30-40% by 2020 and holding temperatures to a rise of 2C – as many campaigners hoped the Copenhagen climate summit in December would achieve – many rich countries would not need to make any domestic cuts to stay within the legal limits of a new global climate deal being negotiated at resumed UN talks in Bonn this week. The figures, which are far higher than expected, could be achieved by a series of carbon accountancy tricks and devices including:
• Selling "hot air" or surplus carbon allowances that were created when Soviet economies collapsed in the late 1980s;
• Using carbon markets to "offset" as much as 30% of rich countries' emission cuts;
• Setting new rules to calculate emission gains and losses from logging and planting trees.
The new analysis, prepared by Bolivia and released by the UN today, converts developed countries' existing pledges into reduction targets as used in the Kyoto protocol. When combined with calculations of loopholes and carbon market mechanisms, it shows a massive gap between the 30-40% cut that scientists have said is needed to stem catastrophic climate change and the cuts which have been pledged by rich countries so far.
The calculations show that if they do not use the loopholes, developed countries would reduce emissions by 10-14% below 1990 levels by 2017. But if the Bonn proposals are adopted, they could increase emissions by between 4% and 8% above 1990 levels.
EDIT
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jun/09/rich-nations-increase-emissions-bonn