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To hell with Deep water oil bombs, we could triple our ethanol supply by importing most of it.

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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-23-10 05:14 PM
Original message
To hell with Deep water oil bombs, we could triple our ethanol supply by importing most of it.
Edited on Wed Jun-23-10 05:42 PM by JohnWxy


Our current domestic ethanol production is greater than what we get from deep water drilling (Ethanol supplies over 7% of total consumption).

Between domestic production and imported ethanol from Brazil and Mexico we could more than replace all the oil we could get from off-shore drilling which, despite assurances from the oil industry, carries enormous environmental risks.



Mexico & Agaves: Moving from Tequila to Ethanol


According to Velez's calculations, 7 million hectares of the Agave-to-ethanol team's enhanced Agave tequilana weber variety could provide the entire 36 billion gallons of ethanol the U.S. government needs by 2022 to comply with the renewable fuel standard set forth in December of last year, as well as 250 million metric tons of the dry biomass it is aiming to obtain by 2017.

Two other key elements appear to make Agave-to-ethanol projects even more attractive and viable: Agaves are planted widely across Mexico and the methods and technology to cultivate them is already at hand.

"The technology for producing massive amounts of our enhanced Agave variety — uniform in sugar content, size, weight, and harvesting time — is ready. This allows mechanization in the field— from establishment to harvesting — reducing costs, time and labor, which in time allows the establishment of very large plantations of Agave, that is, in the millions of hectares," Velez said.

Some 95% of the Agavacea family lives in Mexico, Velez explained. "Agave thrives in semi-arid wastelands — 50% of Mexico — needs no watering or agrochemicals, requires very scarce field labor and grows well in any type of soil, even highly degraded and steep terrains, because it takes nitrogen from the air. One-third of the world's habitable land is arid and semi-arid where agave can be cultivated. Some agave species accept temperature ranges from -14ºC to 50ºC," he said.
(more)
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THe latest ENergy balance data for domestic ethanol from corn ranges from 1.9 to 2.3 to 1 (mid-point: 2.1). Adjusting the Dept of Energy's GHG reduction figure for Corn based Ethanol (28%) for Ethanol's actual Energy Balance you get a GHG emissions reduction for ethanol vs gasoine of 55%.

GM's Chevy Impala FFV running on 20% ethanol blend fuel get 15% BETTER miieage than with gasoline. GM doesn't charge any more for the FFV Impala than the conventional Impala.



NOte, on edit: I checked Velez's calculations. If they can get 5,000 gallons of ethanol per acre ( "This means that annually per acre, we could easily get 5,000 gallons of distilled ethanol and fifty metric tons of dry biomass, with 33 metric tons of cellulose content.") that means for 7 million hectares (that is 17.3 million acres, they could produce over 86 billion gallons of ethanol. So with domestic production plus and equal amount from Brazil you would have (10 bill + 10 bill + 86 bill gals) 106 billion gallons of ethanol, or about two thirds of the U.S. ground transportation fuel demand.






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damntexdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-23-10 05:17 PM
Response to Original message
1. And at least it wouldn't displace a food crop for biofuel production.
But many would be upset at displacing any tequila production.

Still, I can't imaging American corporate agribusiness standing still for this -- not unless they can find a way to control all the agave production.
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exboyfil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-23-10 05:27 PM
Response to Original message
2. I thought Caribbean sugar may also
be a good approach as well. While not the greatest industry, I think the dollars flowing into that area would be useful to alleviate some of the social conditions faced by the islanders. The cash, if used wisely, could be used to build up to something more high tech.
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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-23-10 05:41 PM
Response to Original message
3. checking Velez's figures, I get 86 Billion gallons of ethanol for Mexico, from Agaves
Edited on Wed Jun-23-10 05:44 PM by JohnWxy



Checking Velez's calculations. If they can get 5,000 gallons of ethanol per acre ( "This means that annually per acre, we could easily get 5,000 gallons of distilled ethanol and fifty metric tons of dry biomass, with 33 metric tons of cellulose content.") that means for 7 million hectares (that is 17.3 million acres, they could produce over 86 billion gallons of ethanol. So with domestic production plus and equal amount from Brazil you would have (10 bill + 10 bill + 86 bill gals) 106 billion gallons of ethanol, or about two thirds of the U.S. ground transportation fuel demand.
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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-23-10 06:00 PM
Response to Original message
4. Hydrous Ethanol, higher blends present no problems in legacy vehicles.
It seems difficult to get a straight answer (from EPA) on whether higher blends (15% and higher) of anhydrous ethanol present problems for legacy vehicles(note that a NREL test of higher ethanol blends which included legacy vehicles found no operability problems with higher ethanol blends), but hydrous ethanol does not present a problem:


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x251041

An unmodified Volkswagen Golf 5 FSI was operated successfully on HE15 (15% hydrous ethanol blended with gasoline), meeting European exhaust emission standards in testing conducted by the Netherlands research organization TNO Automotive and by SGS Drive Technology Center of Austria.

In addition to confirming the effectiveness of hydrous ethanol for gasoline blending in actual vehicle trials, these initial tests have shown measurable increases in volumetric fuel economy, indicating higher thermodynamic efficiencies resulting from hydrous ethanol.
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-24-10 08:12 AM
Response to Original message
5. A problem, we are comparing a 30 -100 year plant with an Annual
Agave lives 30-50 years:

http://www.herbalfire.com/agave-tequilana-webers-blue-agave-p-120.html

Thus this is like comparing an acre of Oaks with an acre of Corn. You will get a lot more energy from the acre of Oaks then the acre of Corn each time you harvest, but the Corn can be harvested every year for 100 years. The Oaks can be harvested once every 100 year. If we apply this it corn and Agave numbers in the article, 300 gallons per acre for corn comes out to 30,000 gallons over a 100 year period. Agave will produce 1/2 of that amount.

Now the article being cited gives the numbers in annual units, but that is NOT how Agave handled today. Something is wrong with these numbers. Given that the original report is in Spanish from a University in Mexico and the Report citing it is an American Energy Web Cite, I think the problem may be in translation (And not on the Spanish side). Someone would have to verify these numbers being annual numbers. The University Web Cite is cited in the Article and I list it again here:

http://portal.chapingo.mx/

Someone who knows Spanish should read it and make sure the numbers are annual numbers before we go to far with this topic. I fear someone wanted to read the report as being annual numbers, but given that corn is a plant that requires a lot of water and agave is NOT I suspect the report is on a longer period for the use of Agave but given that nothing else can grow where agave grows may still be an important part of any energy future.

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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-24-10 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. I didn't realize Agaves took many years to mature. I did a little looking and found this link:

Growing the Blue Agave

"Agave plants take six to 10 years to mature, depending on soil, weather and environmental conditions. Most are harvested between 8-10 years but if the sugar content is high enough, some producers will harvest them earlier. Some may even be left for 12 years. The more mature, the better its natural sugars (agave sazon means ripened)."
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Obviously, that would mean you could only harvest annually 1/10th to 1/6th of tlhe total area planted.

.....so what does the 5,000 gallons per yr really mean? (this would explain why my number came out so much higher than Valez's, I was figuring as if all acres would be harvested each year.)

Of course Valez did say Mexico could supply all of the 36 billion gallons of ethanol U.S. has set as a goal for 2022. He must realize he is talking about an annual supply of that amount.


I also posted an article about an Australia company http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x251721 and they expect to harvest 8,000 liters per hactare but that "certain selections of agave in Mexico have produced up to 18,000 litres per hectare" (1 hecatre = 2.47105381, so 18,000 liters per hectare would be about 7,300 liters per acre. But, that has to be from some fraction of the total area planted. So that could turn out to be, annually per acre (for all acres planted) about 729 liters (10 yr harvest) to 1,215 Liters(six yr harvest). And in gallons that would be 192 to 320 per acre (dividing by all acres planted).

This obviously depends upon the variety of Agave and how much or little rainfall the region gets. Probably considerable variation with both variables in play.


But, this is from a plant that makes a semi-arid area productive. Interesting.


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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-24-10 04:01 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. I went back to orig article and started reading cmnts. Prof Valez commented on the very point you
raised, as did others in comments to orig article.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2008/08/mexico-agaves-moving-from-tequila-to-ethanol-53265

Here is Valez's commeent re how he arrived at "annualized"


comment 42

"Jerry, by "annualized" I mean on an annual basis. The annualized figures are used for comparative purposes with annual crops, since agave takes 6 years in the field to harvest. I simply divided the final production numbers by 6."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


... other comments from Valez:

Cmt 21:

Being responsible for most of the figures in Andrew's article I feel obligued to respond to some of your comments:

First, we are using an enhanced cultivar of Agave tequilana weber that was developed by Prof. Madrigal after 29 years of biotechnollogy research. This cultivar has been tested during two full life cycles of the plant with amazing results. Production per hectare numbers are right, in fact, they're a little low: On an annualized basis agave produces 100 tonnes of biomass per acre. From these, agave heads (where sugars are) weigh 44 tonnes (with 27 to 38 degrees Brix). It takes 6 kilos of common agave (with around 20 degrees Brix) to produce one litre of tequila. We use 7 to 8 kilos of our cultivar to produce one litre of distilled ethanol, so each acre of agave produces around 1,500 gallons of distilled ethanol.

Our cultivar of Agave tequilana yields one hundred annual tonnes of biomass per acre or 20 tonnes of dry biomass. Since each tonne of dry biomass can yield up to 180 gallons of cellulosic ethanol, you get from 3,600 gallons of cellulosic ethanol per acre

If you add the 1,500 gallons of distilled ethanol to the 3,600 gallons of cellulosic ethanol you get roughly 5,000 annual gallons of ethanol per acre from Agave tequilana weber cultivar.(my emphasis__JW)

(cont...)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE THAT 3,600 gallons ARE CELLULOSIC ethanol... not yet commercially viable. 1,500 gallons is distilled ethanol. 1,500 gallons of distilled ethanol is still great!__JW

and comment 22:

(cont...)

Now, Prof. Madrigal has developed another agave species cultivar (Agave angustifolia) that can produce 3.5X more biomass than his agave tequilana weber cultivar, althoug with less sugar content. There's where the 12,000 to 18,000 annual gallons per acre came from.

On an annualized basis agave produces 3X more distilled ethanol than sugar cane in Brasil; 6X more distilled ethanol than yellow corn in the US {Well, more like 4 times, but still very good!__JW}; at least 3X more cellulosic ethanol than switchgrass or poplar tree. Producing one gallon of distilled ethanol from agave costs at the most half the cost of one gallon from sugar cane and one fourth of corn's production cost.

One hectare of Agave captures at least 5X more CO2 than one hectare of the fastest growing Eucalyptus on a high density plantation and in one single year agave produces the same cellulose pulp Eucalyptus produces in 5 years.

I know the numbers seem fantastic, made up to attract stupid investors... but they are true. They've been rigorously proven. In the next few years we will see agave industry flourishing, spouting biorefineries like mushrooms.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

He says he's dividing by 6. And the distilled ethanol is almost 4x what corn produces. WOW!


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Christopher Calder Donating Member (61 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-26-10 07:11 PM
Response to Original message
8. All biofuel schemes are destructive.
You cannot replace fossil fuels with anything we grow, and trying to do so creates so much environmental damage, loss of topsoil, displacement of food production, that all biofuel research should be defunded. The biofuel hoax is the greatest ecological and human disaster of the 21st century, causing the deaths by malnutrition of millions of human beings, far more deaths than caused by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. We have increased the cost of food all over the world for nothing, because the net energy gain of any biofuel is so low that it is not worth the environmental and human carnage.

There are allot of people all over the world who want to make money producing biofuels, but they are doing tremendous harm to all of us. We can use up all our topsoil and all of Brazil's and Mexico's topsoil producing biofuels, we can skyrocket the price of fertilizers all over the world, and all we will get for it is higher and higher food prices and speed up the inevitable loss of topsoil which will cause a collapse of the human population due to mass global starvation. That day will come at some point in the century no matter what we do, but there is no reason to commit mass suicide intentionally out of our own ignorance and greed for biofuel profits. Topsoil is a limited resource all over the world, and if we waste our precious topsoil producing inferior quality, low quality ethanol fuel, then we will be trading human lives for short term profits.

All present and future biofuels have the same problems. Biofuel crops are all too low in energy, too light in weight, and thus too bulky and expensive to transport to be of any real value. They all require vast amounts of sunlight to grow and they take up too much land, water, and fertilizer resources to be economically beneficial. By contrast, coal has been successful as a valuable fuel because it is very heavy and compact, high in energy content, and thus makes energy sense to transport. Coal already exists in the ground so you don't have to plant it, water it, and fertilize it. All biofuel schemes, planned or imagined, will never amount to a hill of beans because of the basic limitations of their solar based production process. A requirement for vast amounts of sunlight will always equal a requirement for vast amounts of land area to collect that sunlight; thus solar power schemes can never replace the massive concentrated energy reservoir of fossil fuels.

Growing switchgrass to produce ethanol from lignocellulose has most of the same drawbacks as making ethanol from corn. We will use land, water, fertilizer, farm equipment, and labor to grow switchgrass that will be diverted from food production, with soaring food prices the result. If we grow switchgrass on land currently used to graze cattle, we will reduce beef and milk production. If we grow switchgrass on unused "marginal" prairie lands, we will soon turn those marginal lands into a new dust bowl, which they may turn into anyway due to global warming. Computer models for the progression of global warming show the America Midwest and Southwest getting hotter and dryer, with much of our farm and grazing land turning into desert. We know that biofuel production will speed up greenhouse gas release, so if the global warming theory is true, we soon won't be able to produce enough biofuels to run our cars, or enough food to fill our bellies.

Switchgrass and other biofuel weeds will be grown by ordinary, profit motive driven farmers, not by environmentally trained scientists. Farmers will grow switchgrass on land that could be used to grow corn, wheat, or soybeans, and farmers will want to maximize yield so they will use lots of fertilizer to increase output. The plans biofuel idealists are trying to sell the American public will never produce the kind of "green," food friendly energy resource they promise. The next great scandal will be how to get rid of all the millions of acres of invasive, deep rooted biofuel weeds once society inevitably realizes that even growing second generation biofuel crops is a tragic mistake.

In practical terms, there is not enough usable land area to grow a sufficient quantity of biofuel plants to meet the world's energy demands. According to professors James Jordan and James Powell, "Allowing a net positive energy output of 30,000 British thermal units (Btu) per gallon, it would still take four gallons of ethanol from corn to equal one gallon of gasoline. The United States has 73 million acres of corn cropland. At 350 gallons per acre, the entire U.S. corn crop would make 25.5 billion gallons, equivalent to about 6.3 billion gallons of gasoline. The United States consumes 170 billion gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel annually. Thus the entire U.S. corn crop would supply only 3.7% of our auto and truck transport demands. Using the entire 300 million acres of U.S. cropland for corn-based ethanol production would meet about 15% of the demand."

Growing algae to make biodiesel is being touted as a cure-all for all our biofuel problems, but we are still stuck with the fact that algae need solar energy to turn carbon dioxide into fuel. To make biodiesel, algae are used as organic solar panels which output oil instead of electricity. Researchers brag that algae can produce 15 times more fuel per acre of land than growing corn for ethanol, but that still means we would need an impossibly large number of acres (about 133 million acres) of concrete lined open-air algae ponds to meet our highway energy demands. Those schemes that grow algae in closed reactor vessels, without sunlight, necessitate the algae being fed sugars or starches as a source of chemical energy. The sugars or starches must then be made from corn, wheat, beets, or other crop, so you are simply trading ethanol potential to make oil instead of vodka. If we construct genetically engineered super-algae that are capable of out-competing native algae strains that contaminate open air algae ponds, the new gene-modified algae will be immediately carried to lakes, reservoirs, and oceans all over the world in the feathers of migrating birds, with unknown and possibly catastrophic results.

Using "agricultural waste" to make biofuels has its own problems. Removing unused portions of plants that are normally plowed under increases the need for nitrogen fertilizers, which release the most potent greenhouse gas of all, nitrous oxide. Residual post-harvest crop biomass must be returned to the soil to maintain topsoil integrity, otherwise the rate of topsoil erosion increases dramatically. If we mine our topsoil for energy we will end up committing slow agricultural suicide like the Mayan Empire.

Using wood chips to make ethanol or biodiesel sounds like a good idea until you remember that we currently use wood chips to make fuel pellets for stoves, paper, particle board, and a thousand and one building products. The idea of sending teams of manual laborers into forests to salvage underbrush for fuel would be prohibitively expensive. Our forests are already stressed just producing lumber without tasking them with producing liquid biofuels for automobiles. Such schemes would inevitably drive up the price of everything made from wood, creating yet another resource crisis. Making fuel from true garbage, such as used cooking oil and winery waste, is environmentally harmless, but is it really worth the large infrastructure and vehicle maintenance costs required to sell ethanol and biodiesel as fuels? Our usable true waste resources are very limited in quantity, and not a major energy solution for a nation that uses over 8 billion barrels of crude oil every year.

SEE: http://biofuel.50webs.com/

Christopher Calder - nonprofit food security advocate

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