NHC - 4:00 EDT Update - TS Alex 75 W Campeche Max Sust 50 - Getting Better Organized Leaving Yucatan

000
WTNT31 KNHC 280853
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 91.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ALEX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR ON
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND
PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS AND
VERACRUZ TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT31 KNHC 281736
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 91.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. ALEX HAS MOVED LITTLE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...LATER TODAY.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HEAVY RAINS COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN
VERACRUZ...AND SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/281736.shtml

EDIT

AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. ALEX HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME A NORTH-NORTWESTWARD MOTION NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...TONIGHT.
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. A HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTER OF ALEX.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED STATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT CAYO
ARCAS...LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF ALEX...
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/HR...AND
A GUST OF 45 MPH...73 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HEAVY RAINS COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS AND NORTHERN
VERACRUZ OF MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN