NAS Panel - Right Now, Today, We Are Locking In The Climate For Hundreds, Possibly Thousands Of Yrs

Decisions made today about planet-warming emissions will influence climate impacts not just for decades but for centuries and perhaps even millennia, a panel from the National Academy of Sciences warned Friday.

EDIT

The 242-page report was sponsored by the Energy Foundation - a partnership of major foundations interested in clean energy - and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and was chaired by Susan Solomon, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

It attempts to quantify the impacts of various emissions targets, estimating changes in precipitation, stream flow, wildfires, crop yields and sea-level rise that can be expected with different degrees of warming. It also quantifies the average temperature increases expected if carbon dioxide were stabilized in the atmosphere at different levels.

Per one degree Celsius rise in temperature (or 1.8ºF), the report found:

* Five percent to 10 percent less rainfall in the Mediterranean, southern Africa and southwest North America.
* Five percent to 10 percent less stream flow in major river basins, including the Arkansas River and the Rio Grande.
* Five to 15 percent lower yields of some crops, including corn and wheat in the United States and Africa.
* Three percent to 10 percent increase in heavy rain storms across most land areas
* A two-fold to four-fold increase in area burned by wildfire in parts of western North America.

"There are a lot of lags in the climate system," Solomon said Friday during a press briefing. "Not only are we committing to future impact, but we're committing to impacts that are bigger than we anticipated at the time we emitted them."

EDIT

http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2010/07/locking-in-our-future

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