Wind installations drop 71% in the first half -- and the forecast past 2010 looks dreary

July 27, 2010 | 3:20 pm
“The U.S. wind industry is in distress,” a top renewable energy advocate said Tuesday, and the situation appears as though it could get worse.

Denise Bode, chief executive of the American Wind Energy Assn., said that without a national renewable energy standard, investment and interest in wind projects past 2010 would be headed for a free fall.

Despite more than 5.5 gigawatts under construction, the number of installations this year will still end up 25% to 45% below 2009 levels, according to a new report from the group. And beyond that, there’s a yawning hole in the queue for planned projects.

The first half of the year saw just 1,239 new megawatts come online, a 57% plunge from the same period in 2008 and a 71% drop from last year. Only two new manufacturing plants were built, compared to seven in 2008 and five in 2009.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2010/07/wind-installations-plummet-in-the-first-half-of-2010.html

We need renewable energy so badly, not to mention the jobs created by moving that direction.

in wind projects...". I know investment is important in this - but isn't interest in wind projects up? And what does a national renewable energy standard have to do with interest in wind projects and investment. If I had the money and being an entrepreneur - I would invest in wind power - because in my mind it is inevitable that wind power will play and important part in the future as we move from 'oil dependence'. What am I missing here?

Wind power actually hurts the utility company's bottom line. Not because they're expensive to build and maintain, but because they generate power too cheaply. Over time, revenues go down. Also, wind power is hard to manage as far as electricity supply. Wind is not a constant, so the generation of power has to be balanced with demand from consumers and supply from wind and other sources.

I do support wind power, and would love to install one on my property, however I do understand some reasons why utilities don't like wind power.

Most economists have mentioned that this recession has been a "perfect storm" for many industries. Capital investment is off across the board. A lot of what is coming onto the market was contracted for as long ago as 2006 or 2007 in some cases. There's also problems and idiosyncrasies relating to wind energy equipment manufacture. One is that production varies quite a lot, which is shown, in part, in the article. One year the industry is flush with cash and has a lot of orders to fill, and the next year, there's a trickle. It's the nature of any new enterprise.

Subsidies have been fickle. Feed-in tariffs in Europe have been declining. The situation is different in the USA, with a guaranteed production subsidy of over $20/MWe, but the companies are waiting for a comprehensive climate and energy bill to be passed that will open the bank books -- over $80 billion (perhaps as much as $120 billion) in direct funding and loan programs is proposed for renewable energy, meaning mainly wind. The current piggy bank, set by the 2005 energy act, is at about $20 billion, though it's possible that the GOP stopped it this year.

Demand for energy is also currently down in all categories. That may be hard to imagine, but it's true. The total energy consumption in 2009 was less than in 2008. Again, it's the economy.

The novelty of wind turbines is wearing off, particularly since so many people remember how aggressively BP promoted wind energy in its greenwash ads. T. Boone Pickens' affection for wind energy -- "The Pickens Plan" -- has been inconsistent and he has recently all but kicked it to the curb. Wind generators began showing up in what seemed like every commercial on TV, and people are starting to make wisecracks about it. I still expect to soon see wind turbines in an ad for erection pills. But this also portends that wind energy will soon be gaining a more serious consideration -- going fully mainstream. It may be a topic of fascination today, but if it can turn a profit, it will be around when the glitz is gone.

Grid problems are a bigger problem in Europe, if only because poor connectivity has stopped the Danish wind program for the time being. Wind energy, as you probably know, is intermittent. This is one of the factors that will limit the contribution of wind-generated electricity to about 20%, a goal the USA wants so reach around 2030. With a breakthrough in energy storage, a lot of these distribution difficulties will vanish, and the 20% limit will disappear. Energy storage isn't "sexy" enough to be featured as a Hot New Technology, but it is being driven by the need to make intermittent energy systems truly dispatchable, and to power portable appliances and gadgetry, laptop computers at the top of the list.

There's also some unmitigated bad news that most people are unaware of: a rapidly-growing opposition to wind farms. A lot of environmentalists are incensed, and are sure it's a conspiracy orchestrated by Dick Cheney and Boris Badenov. After looking into it, it's pretty easy to see what is driving it -- companies rushing to "get into wind" which build wind farms in a slap-dash manner, with poor siting, bad acoustics, on a grid insufficient to deal with the unique energy profile of wind turbines. The problem will subside when siting and construction standards are improved.

A lot of people in this forum and elsewhere have the idea that wind energy is a threat to other energy technologies, and active suppression of it is taking place. This is not true; this fear reflects a kind of "tribalism" that does not exist in the real world. There is no such division in the marketplace, and the big companies tend to deal with as many modes of power technology as they can. They want to make money under as many circumstances as they can foresee; killing off any new technology jeopardizes that ability. The only threat that comes close is the fear in coal country that coal will be outlawed by the government, which would be a good thing if the displaced workers were taken care of.

What I have listed may seem discouraging, but it also represents room for improvement in the technology that will add to its profitability and acceptance. If it's good now, it will be a whole lot better in a few years, with a little work. None of these problems are reasons to stop wind, or any, energy development. They are similar to the problems hydro had in the early 1900s, and I have no doubt that they will be worked out. We can expect similar problems with solar energy's emergence. It's also suffering from the bad economy, but mainly through having its growth slowed rather than choked. For the individual investor, the arbitrageur, and the laborer in the field of wind energy technology, this is a painful situation. But in the long run, it's a bump in the road. Unless, of course, we have been sold a complete bill of goods about wind energy, and it's really a complete and utter failure. I strongly doubt that. The bad times will only last as long as the economy is depressed, and may well lead a recovery.

--d!

:thumbsdown:

yup