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hatrack (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-11 12:11 PM Original message |
Science - "Unlikely" That 2C Goal Remains Attainable, No Matter What Happens Next |
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pscot (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-11 12:20 PM Response to Original message |
1. And now back to |
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FBaggins (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-11 12:54 PM Response to Original message |
2. Is this REALLY such a big deal? |
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RaleighNCDUer (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-11 12:58 PM Response to Reply #2 |
3. LOL |
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Tesha (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Apr-17-11 07:41 AM Response to Reply #3 |
78. FBaggins is all for fighting global climate change just so long... |
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FBaggins (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-18-11 10:15 PM Response to Reply #78 |
84. Not at all. |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-11 02:00 PM Response to Original message |
4. Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhous |
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XemaSab (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-11 02:25 PM Response to Original message |
5. Like sands through the hourglass... |
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txlibdem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-11 02:26 PM Response to Original message |
6. I keep telling you people: all you have to do is make me Emperor of the Universe |
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n2doc (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-11 03:02 PM Response to Original message |
7. Say goodbye to the Arctic ice cap |
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Dead_Parrot (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-11 03:28 PM Response to Original message |
8. Water is wet |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-11 04:02 PM Response to Original message |
9. Conclusions based on computer models are not credible |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-11 05:03 PM Response to Reply #9 |
10. That word “slightly” |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-11-11 07:21 PM Response to Reply #10 |
11. Not sure I get your point |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-12-11 08:50 AM Response to Reply #11 |
12. My point regards your claim, "Conclusions based on computer models are not credible" |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-12-11 11:40 AM Response to Reply #12 |
14. Not sure you read my post carefully enough |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-12-11 01:58 PM Response to Reply #14 |
15. No, I read it. |
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XemaSab (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-12-11 02:17 PM Response to Reply #15 |
16. I'm not a fan of models myself |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-12-11 03:33 PM Response to Reply #16 |
18. Well, that's what the models predict |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-12-11 03:34 PM Response to Reply #16 |
19. I would agree with this |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-12-11 04:01 PM Response to Reply #19 |
21. When (in your estimation) will we know enough to act? |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-12-11 05:37 PM Response to Reply #21 |
22. Like I said, in 20 or 30 years |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-13-11 12:27 PM Response to Reply #22 |
32. OK, fair enough, we’ve waited 30 years. (Can we do something now?) |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-12-11 03:20 PM Response to Reply #15 |
17. Still ignoring the main point |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-12-11 03:48 PM Response to Reply #17 |
20. That's right, if the models are anywhere close to accurate, we don't have 20 or 30 years |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-12-11 05:42 PM Response to Reply #20 |
23. Response |
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Barrett808 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-13-11 08:25 AM Response to Reply #23 |
26. It's a gross misrepresentation to suggest that Gavin Schmidt thinks we don't have enough data |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-13-11 09:54 AM Response to Reply #26 |
27. No it is not |
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Viking12 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-13-11 10:40 AM Response to Reply #27 |
30. So the most recent analysis with the most data is the less useful analysis? |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-14-11 12:00 AM Response to Reply #30 |
34. Which model are you talking about? |
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Barrett808 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-13-11 12:19 PM Response to Reply #27 |
31. Gavin: "So to conclude, global warming continues. Did you really think it wouldn’t?" |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-13-11 11:54 PM Response to Reply #31 |
33. Yes it is unequivocal |
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Barrett808 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 09:31 AM Response to Reply #33 |
40. Why would Earth not continue to warm? |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 11:00 AM Response to Reply #40 |
44. You tell me |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 11:31 AM Response to Reply #44 |
48. “Interesting data” but misleading |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 08:18 PM Response to Reply #48 |
56. Did you even look at the graph captions? |
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Barrett808 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 10:26 AM Response to Reply #56 |
65. "Trends" with less than 30 years of annual data are noise. n/t |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 02:27 PM Response to Reply #56 |
72. Yes I did |
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Barrett808 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 11:49 AM Response to Reply #44 |
49. You need at least 20-30 years of annual data to infer a significant trend. Here's why: |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 11:56 AM Response to Reply #49 |
50. I question if even that is enough |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 08:25 PM Response to Reply #50 |
57. Ok, how about we look at the 100 year tend? (nt) |
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Barrett808 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 11:01 AM Response to Reply #57 |
66. Here ya go, straight from NASA: |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 04:02 PM Response to Reply #66 |
75. What exactly is your point? |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-13-11 10:10 AM Response to Reply #23 |
28. "No, honest scientists know we don't have enough data to render judgement yet." |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-14-11 12:03 AM Response to Reply #28 |
35. Let's cut to the chase shall we? |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Apr-14-11 07:08 PM Response to Reply #35 |
36. CanESM2 is the latest version of CanESM which is based on previous models dating back 30 years |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 01:27 AM Response to Reply #36 |
37. You are using the wrong criteria |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 09:32 AM Response to Reply #37 |
41. I guess we need to define accurate |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 10:10 AM Response to Reply #41 |
42. Excellent suggestion |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 11:09 AM Response to Reply #42 |
46. "Why does it matter that the models are all so different?" |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 08:08 PM Response to Reply #46 |
54. It IS true |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 02:11 PM Response to Reply #54 |
70. Of course it is |
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Viking12 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 01:24 PM Response to Reply #42 |
51. Absolute nonsense. |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 08:10 PM Response to Reply #51 |
55. Absolute nonsense |
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Viking12 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 09:13 PM Response to Reply #55 |
58. So you don't even have a clue about the position you defend so vigorously? |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 10:08 PM Response to Reply #58 |
60. I certainly have more of a clue than you |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 02:52 AM Response to Reply #36 |
39. So let's look at how accurate those Candian models have been |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 10:56 AM Response to Reply #39 |
43. I guess I don't see some horrible inaccuracy there. |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 11:06 AM Response to Reply #43 |
45. Really? |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 11:22 AM Response to Reply #45 |
47. Yeah, really. |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 10:06 PM Response to Reply #47 |
59. Make up your mind |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 02:38 PM Response to Reply #59 |
73. The models are not validated simply by looking forward |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 04:25 PM Response to Reply #73 |
76. Yes they are |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 04:14 AM Response to Reply #47 |
64. Question |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 03:08 PM Response to Reply #64 |
74. Yes, I understand what a chaotic system is |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-13-11 10:19 AM Response to Reply #11 |
29. Current Temperature Graphs |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 01:31 AM Response to Reply #29 |
38. Was it? |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 03:38 PM Response to Reply #38 |
52. Um… really? I mean… seriously!? |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 03:45 AM Response to Reply #52 |
62. Seriously |
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Barrett808 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 11:02 AM Response to Reply #62 |
67. 12 years is not long enough to compute a reliable trend |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-18-11 07:02 PM Response to Reply #67 |
80. Ok, how many years do you need? (nt) |
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Barrett808 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-18-11 07:22 PM Response to Reply #80 |
81. Well, 18 years, as I've mentioned elsewhere in this thread. n/t |
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Barrett808 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-18-11 09:00 PM Response to Reply #81 |
82. 18 *more* years, I meant to say. n/t |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Apr-18-11 10:03 PM Response to Reply #81 |
83. How ironic |
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Barrett808 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-19-11 10:38 AM Response to Reply #83 |
86. Obviously, I meant "years of data" not "more years of observation" |
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OKIsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 02:24 PM Response to Reply #62 |
71. And 1999 was much cooler than 2010 |
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Barrett808 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-12-11 09:10 AM Response to Reply #9 |
13. "All models are wrong, but some are useful." -- George E. P. Box |
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Odin2005 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-12-11 10:10 PM Response to Reply #9 |
24. Solipsistic pseudo-skeptical babble. |
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Viking12 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Apr-13-11 06:28 AM Response to Reply #24 |
25. +3 (+/-1.5) |
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hatrack (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 07:31 PM Response to Reply #24 |
53. Yes, let's wait until models are accurate to 0.001C over multiple lifetimes of the universe . . . |
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XemaSab (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Apr-15-11 10:35 PM Response to Reply #53 |
61. Can I borrow a dollar? |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 03:51 AM Response to Reply #53 |
63. Nice strawman |
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Barrett808 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 11:03 AM Response to Reply #63 |
68. A "ten-year period" is not long enough to infer a trend |
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Nederland (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 01:40 PM Response to Reply #68 |
69. Nice try |
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Barrett808 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Apr-16-11 07:16 PM Response to Reply #69 |
77. This graph illustrates why you can't infer anything from short time periods: |
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Viking12 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Apr-19-11 10:36 AM Response to Reply #63 |
85. Are you a liar or simply willfully ignorant of what the near term projections actually are? |
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txlibdem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Apr-17-11 08:40 AM Response to Original message |
79. Video shows that it doesn't matter if climate data is exact or not |
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