Precipitation variability in Northeast, Southwest linked in 1,000-year analysis

Public release date: 8-Nov-2011

Contact: Todd McLeish
tmcleish@uri.edu
401-874-7892
http://www.uri.edu/">University of Rhode Island

Precipitation variability in Northeast, Southwest linked in 1,000-year analysis

Results validate climate predictions of increased extreme weather events

NARRAGANSETT, R.I. – November 7, 2011 – An analysis of precipitation data collected from a lakebed in New York and a Rhode Island estuary has provided a link between the variability of precipitation in the Northeast with that of the Southwest. The results validate climate models that predict an increasing number of extreme weather events.

The research was published in the online edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Oct. 19.

Former URI graduate student J. Bradford Hubeny, currently an assistant professor of geological sciences at Salem State University, and John King, a professor in the University of Rhode Island's Graduate School of Oceanography, reconstructed the precipitation record from Green Lake in Fayetteville, N.Y., and the Pettaquamscutt River estuary in Narragansett, R.I. They found that the moisture patterns at these sites were similar and correlated with the Pacific/North American pattern, a large-scale weather pattern that circulates from the North Pacific Ocean across North America.

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"We've confirmed the recent trend toward a more meridional circulation pattern, which increases the frequency of flooding and decreases the frequency of droughts in the Northeast," King said. "The unusual weather is going to become more usual. The good news is that we probably won't have mega-droughts like they're experiencing in other parts of the country, but we will be in for more extreme weather events."

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