Will the Lights Stay On in Texas and New England?

Texas and New England may soon run short of the generating capacity they need to reliably meet peak loads, largely because old plants will be retired rather than retrofitted to meet new pollution rules, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation reported on Monday.

The reliability corporation, assigned by the federal government to enforce rules on the power grid, issued a 10-year forecast that conveys a greater level of uncertainty than previous predictions. One problem is that about 600 large plants are likely to be shut for several months for the installation of pollution controls, executives said, and coordinating the shutdowns to avoid local electricity shortages will be a formidable task. The 600 are a substantial fraction of the grid’s generating resources; although there are about 15,000 plants on the grid, more than half of them are quite small.

“Over all, the North American grid and bulk power supply continue to be adequate, and sufficient plans are in place,’’ said Gerry Cauley, president and chief executive. But two areas require extra attention, he said: the bulk of Texas, which is served by a grid isolated from the rest of the United States, and New England. “There’s some uncertainty in their resources at this point,’’ he said.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the name for the grid that covers most of the state, could run short by 2013, the report said; New England could run short by 2015.

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/28/will-the-lights-stay-on-in-texas-and-new-england/