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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-07-05 12:05 PM
Original message
Importing European oil
I had not heard this. Is it true?

What they failed to notice is this: since the hurricanes shredded our Gulf of Mexico oil and gas capacity, Europe has been sending us 2 million barrels of crude oil and "refined product" a day from its collective strategic petroleum reserve. The "refined product" includes 800,000 barrels of gasoline, plus diesel, aviation, and heating fuel. Meanwhile, US domestic production has fallen to around 4 million barrels of conventional crude a day. America uses close to 22 million barrels of oil a day. Bottom line: post-hurricane, total imports have accounted for 80 percent of America's oil consumption.

(...)

Now, the important part of all this is that last week the International Energy Agency (IEA), Europe's energy security watchdog, declared that it would now end the 2 million barrel a day shipments to the US. Not because they are hateful meanies, but because, after all, it is Europe's strategic reserve and they can't sell it all to us because, well, some strategic emergency might come up for them, too.

It will take a few weeks for the last of Europe's tankers to offload supplies and for the various fuels to work their way through the US fuels retail system. With US production and refining still crippled, we can look forward to watching the price of gasoline, heating oil, diesel and aviation fuel kick back up through Thanksgiving and on into the heart of the Christmas shopping season. At the same time, homeowners will be getting their first substantial heating bills of the season.

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2005/11/attention_defic.html
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-07-05 12:35 PM
Response to Original message
1. I heard of it right after Katrina
And I suspected it was still ongoing for price of gasoline locally is down to $2.17 a gallon from $3.19 a gallon it was right after Katrina. The reason I suspected it was still ongoing is the price locally BEFORE Katrina was $2.49 a gallon. If the drop in price was tied in with regular imports and production it should NOT have dropped below $2.49 a gallon, but it did.

The next question is what will the price be once this oil from Europe Strategic Reserve stops flowing? Will the price go back to $2.49 a gallon? Or will it go higher (I do NOT see it dropping anymore nor staying where it is)? Only time will tell.

By the way the only reason Europe dumped this oil on the US was that the US was panic buying. i.e. pushing the price up all over the world so the US could replace its losses in oil supplies. Europe supplied oil to the US to knock down the price for EUROPE.

Thus this was NOT done for the benefit of the US but Europe, and the cut off of oil supplies is also for the benefit of Europe not the US.
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NickB79 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-07-05 02:08 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Europe and the US will have to rebuild their depleted supplies
So I'm guessing prices will go higher than before Katrina since there will be extra demand to refill those strategic reserves over the next few years.
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-07-05 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. I do not think the US has touched its Strategic Reserve
The main reason is that it is in the Salt Domes along the Louisiana Coast (i.e. hit by both Katrina and Rita). Bush had just filled it to full capacity just prior to Katrina and than could NOT use it (The filling of the reserve was one of the many reason for high Gasoline Prices in August 2005).

Thus the US had to rely on Europe for extra fuel. One of the reason gasoline prices jumped almost 70 Cents a gallon was the lost of access to oil from Louisiana (Texas has been a net oil importer for at least five years). Another problem was that one of the ways oil is imported into the US is New Orleans where it is transfered to barges (that go up the Mississippi) or pipelines (that go to the East coast and New york City). Katrina hitting New Orleans halted BOTH means of transport. Now things are returning to "Normal" so Europe is more than happy to resume adding to its reserve as opposed to using those reserves.

How this will affect the upcoming winter heating season is anyone's guess, but I would recommend you buy your home heating oil/kerosene NOW, before the price goes up.
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Coastie for Truth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-13-05 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #1
8. Arbitraging Hydrocarbons
Happyslug appended:
By the way the only reason Europe dumped this oil on the US was that the US was panic buying. i.e. pushing the price up all over the world so the US could replace its losses in oil supplies. Europe supplied oil to the US to knock down the price for EUROPE.


Several (ok - many) years ago I took a course on petroleum economics. Petroleum is really fungible, and a hypothetical barrel of oil is "traded" many times on the commodity markets as it wends way from terminal to terminal.

In the pre-computer era - before commodity "day traders" - the number of transactions was several hundred.
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Strelnikov_ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-07-05 03:47 PM
Response to Original message
3. Appears To Be. Have Read A Number Of Articles Over The Last Month
raising this issue as one reason for the disparity between gasoline and distillate (diesel/fuel oil) prices.

Does this mean the energy crises is on again? Did I cancel my Prius order too soon?
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-07-05 04:24 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. My feeling is, energy shortages are here to stay.
Edited on Mon Nov-07-05 04:27 PM by phantom power
The prices will go up and down, just like with any market, but from here on out, the trend is going to be towards ever-more-expensive energy.

Alternatively, a steady decrease in living standard for industrialized nations. At some point, the price of energy reaches a point where people can't pay for it. So, technically, the price stabilizes, but at the cost of decreasing standard of living, at least insofar as standard of living is driven by access to cheap energy. The euphemism is "demand destruction." Sort of like "collateral damage."

(edit)

On related topic, one of our local electric utilities, APS, is requesting a 20% rate hike this year. I gather they'd have done it already, but they have to get permission. Part of this is driven by them having to shut down one of their nuclear reactors for repairs. Another part is the increasing cost of natural gas.
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Coastie for Truth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-13-05 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #4
9. That's Hubbert's model - and Deffeyes' and Goodsteins's too
whether you're on the Lovins side (I am) or the Kunstler side.
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aztc Donating Member (377 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-08-05 08:47 AM
Response to Original message
6. Before we:
Drill one more well

Build one more refinery

Or kill one more innocent person...

Will You slow down and Drive 55 ?

Thank god for $3 gas, may it soon reach $6!

Petroleum IS solar energy.

Learn more at http://drive55.org
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muriel_volestrangler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-13-05 11:27 AM
Response to Original message
7. I can't tell if that blog is accurate or not
The IEA (which, as its name suggests, covers more than Europe) seems to say the reserve, though made available, wasn't fully used:

9/7/2005 Paris --- IEA Executive Director Claude Mandil announced today the initial composition of the IEA's collective action to make available crude oil and products in response to supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Katrina. In an act of solidarity, all 26 IEA member countries, in cooperation with the EU, agreed on 2nd September to offer an additional 60 million barrels to the market over 30 days. The breakdown of their contribution is now available:
...

* North America is offering the biggest contribution of total response (52%), followed by Europe (30%) and the Pacific region (18%), based on agreed shares of consumption.


* Countries have committed to draw stocks at the rate of nearly 2 million barrels per day, of which 1,289 kb/d is crude oil and 683 kb/d is product stock consisting of 369 kb/d, motor gasoline, 276 kb/d, middle distillates and 38 kb/d fuel oil.


* Outside the U.S., the largest stockdraw contribution will be 545 kb/d of finished products from Europe, consisting of 317 kb/d, motor gasoline, 190 kb/d, middle distillates and 38 kb/d, fuel oil.

IEA Press Release, 7th Sept


And the attached PDF shows the North American figure included 1 million barrels a day of US crude oil reserves.

10/20/2005 Paris --- The IEA Governing Board today reviewed its initial collective response action of 2 September 2005 to disrupted oil supplies in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and agreed to allow volumes of crude oil and oil products from the IEA’s original offer of 60 million barrels, not yet taken up, to remain available to the market. The IEA will continue to assess the market and the Governing Board reiterated its preparedness to take additional co-ordinated action, if necessary, to address possible future shortages in products and crude oil, caused by the cumulative damage left by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, or indeed, other unanticipated supply losses. Flexibility will be used in replenishing IEA emergency oil stocks through 2006, taking into account the seasonality of demand and the upcoming heating season in the northern hemisphere.

IEA Press Release 20th Oct


So the 60 million barrels hadn't all been used by 20th October - ie it had been used at less than the 2 million barrels per day anticipated, and half of it was US reserves. Maybe the 60 million was finally used between 20th October and the week before Kunstler wrote his piece.
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