The Pew Center on Global Climate Change
http://www.pewclimate.org/global_warming_in_depth/all_reports/energy_scenarios/index.cfmfrom the Forward:
"The question of how U.S. energy supply and use—which account for over 80 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions—will evolve over the next several decades is critical to developing sound U.S. climate policy. To answer this question, the Pew Center convened two workshops, including members of its Business Environmental Leadership Council and independent experts, to envision and analyze future energy scenarios for the United States, and to assess the implications of these scenarios for U.S. carbon emissions. The scenarios are:
- Awash in Oil and Gas, in which oil and gas are cheap, abundant, and reliably available;
- Technology Triumphs, in which the commercialization of climate-friendly energy technologies is accelerated through a combination of state policy, technological breakthroughs, public and private investment, and consumer interest; and
- Turbulent World, in which supply disruptions and energy security concerns lead to aggressive federal energy policy promoting domestic, low-risk resources."
(snip)
"This report explores what might happen to U.S. energy supply and use in the future; the Pew Center plans to turn next to an exploration of what ought to happen. We will use these scenarios to test policy and technology options and identify those that are robust across a broad range of plausible futures. We hope that readers will join us in developing a shared national vision of policies, strategies, and investments that will reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and promote U.S. energy security while maintaining economic growth."
- much, much more . . .
http://www.pewclimate.org/global_warming_in_depth/all_reports/energy_scenarios/index.cfm(downloadable in .pdf format . . .)