2006 Hurricane Season

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/dec2005/

From the Colorado State University Dept. of Atmospheric Science:

We foresee another very active Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2006. However, we do not expect to see as many landfalling major hurricanes in the United States as we have experienced in 2004 and 2005.

<snip>

The recent U.S. landfall of major hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma and the four Florida landfalling hurricanes of 2004 (Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne) has raised questions about the possible role that global warming may be playing in these last two unusually destructive seasons.

The global warming arguments have been given much attention by many media references to recent papers claiming to show such a linkage. Despite the global warming of the sea surface of about 0.3oC that has taken place over the last 3 decades, the global numbers of hurricanes and their intensity have not shown increases in recent years except for the Atlantic.

<snip>

There is no physical basis for assuming that global hurricane intensity or frequency is necessarily related to global mean surface temperature changes of less than ± 0.5oC. As the ocean surface warms, so too does global upper air temperatures to maintain conditionally unstable lapse-rates and global rainfall rates at their required values. Seasonal and monthly variations of sea surface temperature (SST) within individual storm basins show only very low correlations with monthly, seasonal, and yearly variations of hurricane activity. Other factors such as tropospheric vertical wind shear, surface pressure, low level vorticity, mid-level moisture, etc. play more dominant roles in explaining hurricane variability than do surface temperatures. Although there has been a general global warming over the last 30 years and particularly over the last 10 years, the SST increases in the individual tropical cyclone basins have been smaller (about half) and, according to the observations, have not brought about any significant increases in global major tropical cyclones except for the Atlantic which as has been discussed, has multi-decadal oscillations driven primarily by changes in Atlantic salinity. No credible observational evidence is available or likely will be available in the next few decades which will be able to directly associate global surface temperature change to changes in global hurricane frequency and intensity.

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Hmmm. I'm skeptical of their skepticism regarding global warming, especially given the increased anomalies (like Epsilon) over the past few years. But this is one of those controversies that can't be definitively settled in a few years, perhaps not even in a few decades.

Either way, 2006 should be an "interesting" hurricane season.

Right now, they seem a bit stuck on the idea that the (many, many) record-breakers of 2005 were anomalies. As an expert, I would be annoyed if a guy like me sat here and said I think they're wrong. But I think they are wrong. Exactly what's going on is not understood by humans (yet) but systematic changes are in play. They aren't going to just disappear like statistical anomalies would.

I notice from that forecast report that their methods of forecasting are heavily weighted on various statistical measures of "what has been going on the previous 100 years." I bet that's the main source of their prediction failures. The phenomenology is starting to change, and the previous 100 years of behavior simply aren't as relevant as their prediction algorithms assume.

There is no physical basis for assuming that global hurricane intensity or frequency is necessarily related to global mean surface temperature changes of less than ± 0.5oC

I don't see what difference temperatures from the Bay of Bengal, the Ross Sea, and the South Pacific have on hurricanes. Wouldn't it be more useful to look at the Gulf in particular? Or do we now have holistic forecasting?

Although there has been a general global warming over the last 30 years

I'm also curious how they reached the conclusion that global warming started in 1975. I seem to recall being in a car and having electric light prior to that. Rather conveniently, the temperature rise since 1975 is indeed slightly less than 0.5C. If you look back to the 19th century you get a different picture, but that's ancient history, I guess. The real gem is:

This large increase in Atlantic major hurricanes is primarily a result of the multi-decadal increase in strength of the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) which is not directly related to global temperature increase. Changes in ocean salinity are believed to be the driving mechanism.

Interesting that "thermohaline" is not linked to temperature. My dictionary is out of date, I guess. And it's odd that Woods Hole, the Hadley Centre and the UK NOC disagree about global warming changing the flow. Still, belief is a wonderful thing. FSM weather forecasting! The best thing since hanging seaweed outside!

Not sure about Klotzbach, but Gray's been doing this for years and must have got the hang of it by now. I can only assume the phrase "budget cut" has drifted down from on high. Or, that someone else has "helped with the editing" since they finished it.

As this report indicates, he willfully ignores evidence that doesn't support his predetermined views. His appearance before the Senate Environment Committee with Michael Crichton at the request of Inhofe was a joke.

I didn't know about the Crichton connection. Oh well, he gets my "Assclown of the Day" award. :grr:

The only "connection" is that they both appeared before the EPW Comm on the same day and had about the same line of BS.

This large increase in Atlantic major hurricanes is primarily a result of the multi-decadal increase in strength of the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) which is not directly related to global temperature increase. Changes in ocean salinity are believed to be the driving mechanism.

If hurricane numbers and strength are directly related to the strength of the THC, then we should be seeing a weakening instead of a strengthening because the thermohaline circulation is faltering.

Or am I missing something?

directly contradicts his claim

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/30/AR2005113002092.html

I would have thought that the THC was a mechanism for moving warm surface water from the equator to the poles where it cools and sinks. If it slows then more heat is retained in tropical waters with the result that hurricanes may me more frequent and more violent.

Hurricanes are caused by heat.
Summer is when it's warmest,
so you get hurricanes in summer.
THC takes the heat out of the area.
Less THC means more heat in the area.
More heat means more hurricanes.
:banghead:
FFS, even my cat can understand that. Hell, even a politician can understand that. Christ knows why a professional forcaster can't.

Slamed an article in Nature that provided some clear links between global warming and increased hurricanes intensity. Screw him - no longer a creditable hurricane "guru". His predictions, even all the updated ones, proved false this year.