(Cross-posting from the Peak Oil Group - more traffic here).
Sorry it took me this long to get to it - enjoy!
ASPO USA DENVER WORLD OIL CONFERENCE
Summary Report
All presentation Powerpoints available at:
http://www.aspo-usa.org/proceedings /
Tom Petrie - Co-Founder, Petrie Parkman & Company
http://www.petrieparkman.com/index.asp Petrie estimates global decline at 4-6% annually after peaking
Non-OPEC will peak around 2010
Global Peak will come sometime between 2010 and 2015 however, he projects the decline process to have a long tail that is, the right hand of the Hubbert curve will be somewhat fatter than an idealized Gaussian curve
75% of conventional production comes from fields which are at least 25 years old
Petroleum Financial Corporation concedes global discovery peak came in 1964
As LNG deployment picks up speed, Petrie assumes approx. 1.6 MBOE from the Atlantic Basin, slightly more from the Pacific Basin, but stresses LNG will not be a panacea
Petrie himself spent the first 10 years of his career (1971-81) convinced that Hubbert was wrong
Chris Skrebowski Editor, Petroleum Review
http://www.energyinst.org.uk/index.cfm?PageID=9 Global production peak by early 2008
Total, Exxon and Schlumberger estimates converge on annual decline rate of 5%
Demand will not create supply long-term time and capital demands of energy industry i.e. 5-7 years to explore, discover and exploit resources badly mismatched with an extremely short-term financial market focus
The UK now hopes for decline from their North Sea fields of only 8% annually
In the first half of 2005:
Oil production for the Big Five down 1.72% over 2004
Oil production for the Big Ten down 1.14% over 2004
Oil production for the 22 largest public companies down 0.92% over 2004
We are moving into a new world. It is a world without maps.
Jeremy Gilbert Chief Petroleum Engineer, BP (retired)
While reported reserves range from tight to bountiful, there is not that much in the way of generally agreed-to hard data
Along with restrictions placed on reserve data by governments and private companies, SEC rules are hopelessly outdated rules force companies to report as reserves what the companies themselves may not view as viable reserves
OPEC revisions in the mid-to-late1980s are extremely suspect especially when national reserves SA, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq are compared with those of the Neutral Zone
Abu Dhabi has chosen to limit its depletion rate to 1% per year having implicitly admitted peaking, they have no incentive to boost production for the sake of the West and a similar stance may be adopted by other Gulf states.
Henry Groppe Founder, Groppe, Long & Littell
http://www.groppelong.com /
Total global conventional oil production will peak between 2008 and 2010
Canada will surpass US production by 2015
After the first oil shock, the US did not return to 1970 per capita oil consumption levels until 2003 the EU has never returned to 1970 consumption levels
FSU production figures do not match Hubbert projections for political and economic reasons the post-Soviet oil boom was result of companies bringing production levels to what they would have been w/o economic collapse 1989-1991
Oil at $100 per barrel will reduce demand growth to zero
John Barnes Chairman, B & R Energy
We are very, very close to N. American natural gas peak
Energy industry faces tremendous pressure for skilled personnel & equipment average age of a petroleum geologist today is 50, there are only about 200 directional drilling crews and about 1,400 natural gas rigs in all of North America
See Hubberts testimony to the US Senate in 1972 on oil & gas peaks
Matt Simmons Chairman, Simmons & Company International
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com /
US conventional oil peaked in 1970, conventional natural gas peaked in 1973
UK North Sea high data transparency, best technology in the world, but 1995 industry projections put production peak in 2010 peak came in 1999
Saudi Arabia 5 supergiants produce 90% of conventional oil 3 giants make up another 8% - all are between 40 and 60 years old
Reserve appreciation was huge (100 200%) between the 1940s and the 1960s its now around 20%
Between 1990 and 2005, only 15% of reserve additions came from newly discovered fields everything else was paper revisions of reserve extent
35% of planetary conventional production comes from exactly 55 fields and 20% of planetary conventional production comes from 14 aging supergiants, the youngest of which is 30 years old
The Burgan Complex in Kuwait, 2nd-largest field in the world, is now in decline
Data/reporting reform is absolutely key
Mike Ashar Executive Vice President, Suncor
http://www.suncor.com/start.aspx Current Suncor production capacity of 260,000 bpd
Total investment in the Athabascan all companies will top $50 billion in next 10 years
If Athabascan included, Canada has worlds 2nd-largest oil reserves 175 bbl
Claims energy expenditure on one barrel of oil sands = 1/8th barrel (I really have my doubts on this)
Estimates total Suncor production by 2010 at 500,000 b/d; total oil sands production, all companies by 2030 5 million b/d
Extremely capital-intensive, extremely large environmental impacts, natural gas prices/supply major concern
Dennis Jacobson CEO RenTech
http://www.rentechinc.com Fischer-Tropsch conversion is proven and works, plays into American strength as worlds leader in coal stocks
The fuels and feedstocks produced FT diesel and naphta can serve as precursors for other hydrocarbons, chemicals
So far, Sasol and RenTech are the only two companies in the world investing in this technology, though growth potential remains huge, particularly in newly emerging Asian markets
Capital-intensive, though not so much as oil sands operations
Michael Pacheco Director, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
http://www.nrel.gov/biomass NREL is concentrating on non-edible components - lignins and lignocellulosic biomass far greater potential for fuel replacement
While starches, oils and proteins are already easily reducible to fuel and feedstocks, non-edibles will demand considerable ingenuity to industrialize processing
Corn & soy biomass have the potential to replace between 10-20% of gasoline and 5-10% of diesel respectively
Other approaches notably research on algae are lagging
Jeff Probst President & Chairman, Blue Sun Biodiesel
http://www.gobluesun.com /
Renewable clean fuel derived from a variety of sources canola, mustard, soy, corn, waste grease & tallow
Conventional feedstock breeding has improved cetane, burns cleaner and provides better compression and lubrication in biodiesels
Biodiesel makes up an infinitesimal fraction of US gasoline used by 2012, estimates are 24 mby biodiesel production - .003% of total
Roger Bezdek President, Management Information Services, Inc.
http://www.misi-net.com /
Energy-related recessions in the past were brief, but peak oil economic impacts could last a decade
Crash program to respond to likely shortfalls will almost certainly be delayed
Energy sector reluctance to engage in such programs is profound after the price collapse of the 1980s
Peak oil until recently viewed as fringe how have the realists done w. their predictions? NPC in 1999, DOE & EIA in 1999 and CERA in 2001 all stated unequivocally in their forecasts that natural gas would be in plentiful supply as recently as four years ago
Technology will not save us improved detection and recovery systems make depletion more efficient. In addition, slant- and directional-drilling, 3-D seismic imaging, etc. were developed in the 1970s. there are no comparable research efforts now in the pipeline
Charles Maxwell Weeden & Company
http://www.weedenco.com /
Non-OPEC peak in 2010 at this point, OPEC will control all incremental oil
2000-era projects coming on line will give some temporary relief in 2006-07 potential downside $45, but this will be ephemeral
WTI costs/projections 2003 - $31; 2004 - $41; 2005 - $57; 2006 - $54; 2007 - $56; 2008 - $62; 2009 - $68; 2010 - $75 averages concealing substantial volatility of $12-15 per barrel in either direction
We face a pyramid of debt for energy and there is no other option but to face high prices to begin the adjustment
Geopolitics assassination/coup on Chavez likely, civil war also likely estimates oil cutoff within 2 days, with oil instantly hitting $80-100 shipping times of 4-5 days to LOOP exert very different influences over supplies for Venezuelan oil than 45-50-day shipping times from Saudi Arabia, Oman, et. al.
Capacity utilization now stands at about 98% worldwide tightness all around
LNG push will knock gas prices down to $6-7 in 2007 or 2008, exerting downward pressure on drillers and rig counts, who will likely face layoffs
Substantial political risks attend facing these problems with as dysfunctional a political system as we now have
Steve Mut, CEO, Shell Unconventional Resources Unit
http://www.shell.com more precise URL coming later site down
Kerogen shales are less than 50% hydrocarbons by weight 15 gallons of fuel per ton of source rock
Prior methods of mining disastrously inefficient and destructive new in situ method far better 60-65% of original carbons in place converted, remainder sequestered
EROEI of about 3.5 1 comparable to EOR operations in conventional oil fields
The thickest areas in the are capable of producing about 1 mb/acre total recoverable might amount to 50-100 bb, but uncertainties large, new process experimental and to date extremely small-scale
To produce 1 mbd would require 8-10 gigawatts of electricity equivalent to the total generating capacity of Colorado
Peter Dea CEO, Western Gas Resources
http://www.westerngas.com /
Excess gas capacity ended in 2000, will likely not return
Since 1/03, rig counts have increased 63% and US gas production has declined by 2% - a slightly negative net production total is possible for 2005
½ of supply needed to meet projected demand in 2012 is undiscovered
Between 2000 and 2004, per-rig productivity went from 22 mcf/day to 4 mcf/day on a per-well basis