Fault East of Bay Area 'Locked and Loaded'

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/nat-gen/2006/mar/25/032502678.html

New cracks appear in Elke DeMuynck's ceiling every few weeks, zigzagging across her living room, creeping toward the fireplace, veering down the wall. Month after month, year after year, she patches, paints and waits.

"It definitely lets you know your house is constantly shifting," DeMuynck said. So do the gate outside that swings uselessly 2 1/2 inches from its latch, the strange bulges in the street and the geology students who make pilgrimages to her cul-de-sac.

DeMuynck could throw her paint brush from her front stoop and hit the Hayward Fault, which geologists consider the most dangerous in the San Francisco Bay Area, if not the nation. Like others who live here, she gets by on a blend of denial, hope and humor.

It's the geologists, emergency planners and historians who seem to do most of the worrying, even in this year of heightened earthquake awareness for the 100th anniversary of San Francisco's Great Quake of April 18, 1906.

<more>

Oh wow!!! This is scary but not unexpected. I live near the Algodones fault in S. CA. We get little shakes every so often but NOTHING like facing the fear of the BIG ONE in the Bay Area.

The northern end, Berkeley is expected to get the worst of this, I think.

:yoiks: :yoiks: :yoiks:

Southern and Northern. The seismologists are hoping that only one end goes in a big one, and since the southern end was the site of the big 19th century one there may be a slightly higher risk at the north end but either way if you're near the fault, especially to the west of it, the damage scenarios are pretty sobering.

I live about 15 miles east of it and would expect moderate damage if any part of the Hayward shook at over 6.7 mag, moderate meaning lots of repairs but the house should still be standing and on its foundation. I'd be in more trouble if the Calaveras or another East Bay fault shook off a big one.

http://www.findingfault.com/ch4.html

One of the photos:
Hayward fault (page 98b)

Street address: Corner of Rose and Prospect, Hayward

25-MAR-2006 03:42:33 41.81 -125.97 4.1 10.0 OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
25-MAR-2006 03:16:05 41.78 -126.03 5.0 10.0 OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

all kinda shakin going on in Iran today too

25-MAR-2006 12:13:52 27.65 55.54 4.7 86.9 SOUTHERN IRAN
25-MAR-2006 11:03:05 27.68 55.65 4.8 89.7 SOUTHERN IRAN
25-MAR-2006 10:22:54 27.31 55.56 4.7 35.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
25-MAR-2006 10:00:36 27.46 55.78 5.4 23.2 SOUTHERN IRAN
25-MAR-2006 09:55:12 27.61 55.84 5.2 8.8 SOUTHERN IRAN
25-MAR-2006 08:56:26 27.53 55.56 4.7 45.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
25-MAR-2006 07:29:01 27.65 55.66 5.8 44.1 SOUTHERN IRAN

http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

if you find that geology students are making pilgrimages to your neighborhood, that's a sign that maybe it's time to move on.

> if you find that geology students are making pilgrimages to your
> neighborhood, that's a sign that maybe it's time to move on.

It's when the geology students are suddenly hightailing *out* of
your neighbourhood that you want to worry!

Now if the lecturers were leaving, that's different :)

Edit: Try looking at thier feet. If they're wearing boots you're OK. If they're wearing running shoes, try to beat the rush.

It depends greatly on the type of soil upon which your house resides. Berkeley-Oakland hills are bedrock. You will get a bump and thump but not much motion. The flats are fill. That's were you get all the rock and roll and damage. The most damage in the '89 San Francisco quake was in the Marina District--all fill.

I experienced a fairly hefty quake from the Hayward fault when I lived in Berkeley a few years back. I was in the hills partying that night and got a lot of bump and thump but no damage. If I had been at my own home in the flats I would have been rocking and rolling. The interesting thing was that I was taking a geology class at Laney College at the time. Comparing notes the following morning with the rest of the students about movement and looking at geological maps was the high point of the semester.