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Analyzing Alberto's Life (Jeff Masters)

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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-14-06 06:30 PM
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Analyzing Alberto's Life (Jeff Masters)
Maybe I really was close to the truth. SST has been effectively integrated out of the joint distribution. Alberto got a bit of an opening in wind-shear, and that was enough, since nice hot SST is nearly a given in all circumstances now. The marginals. The marginals...

Alberto struggled over its entire life with wind shear of 20-30 knots overhead. Why, then, was it able to put on a surprising burst of intensification on Monday morning over the Gulf of Mexico? One possibility is that the a brief lull in the wind shear allowed Alberto to take advantage of the warm waters of the Loop Current. As seen in Figure 1, the Loop Current was pumping a long tongue of waters with high heat content into the central Gulf of Mexico. Alberto spent much of its life over this high heat content water. Just as Alberto moved away from the Loop Current, wind shear appeared to drop by about 10%, based on satellite estimates I viewed at the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS site. This small relaxation in shear may have been enough to allow Alberto to take advantage of the warm Loop Current waters and put on a burst of intensification. Shortly thereafter, the shear increased by 10%, Alberto left the Loop Current, and the intensification stopped.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=379&tstamp=200606



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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-14-06 07:17 PM
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1. Here on the I-95 Corridor of NC we got Drenched by Alberto...it filled
our drought striken reservoir...and caused some damage to the East of Raleigh with tornado strikes.

So...it might have missed FLA it's good the winds didn't increase but it caused alot of flooding on it's path.

I'm wondering if WU sees that "Gulf Tongue" as a problem in the coming season for hurricanes. IOW'D's if they linger too long in the Gulf they can build up power. So, it could be a repeat of last season with Mid-Gulf and Texas including Panhandle, or maybe the season before when the hurricanes crossed FLA in the Upper quadrant and came up the East Coast to the NC Outer Banks plus a couple that hit the Mountain area of NC with Flash Floods?

:shrug:
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-14-06 10:04 PM
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2. Yes, they call that tongue a "warm core ring" or loop-current.
And that very thing was responsible for at least some of the rapid intensifications from last year. Over that current, the warm water goes very deep. As the storm passes over, it turns up the water with turbulence, but there's nothing but more hot water underneath.
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