Meanwhile... in the Gulf of Mexico... - Democratic Underground

phantom power

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Sun Jul-23-06 03:13 PM
Original message

Meanwhile... in the Gulf of Mexico...

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spindrifter

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Sun Jul-23-06 03:15 PM
Response to Original message

1. I wonder how this compares with temps. last year.

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phantom power

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Sun Jul-23-06 03:16 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. Actually this year it's a bit hotter. Here's the plot from last year:

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skids

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Sun Jul-23-06 03:20 PM
Response to Reply #2

6. No storms to carry the heat off...

Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 03:20 PM by skids

This can't be good:

A NORTHWESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR... IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
WATER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.

...not for the current investigational area, which seems headed inland before that, but those upper level winds as you well know are the only thing holding the season back.

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phantom power

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Sun Jul-23-06 03:31 PM
Response to Reply #6

9. Yeah, I assume all hell is going to break loose when the wind shear drops.

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jpak

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Sun Jul-23-06 03:24 PM
Response to Reply #2

7. The 25 degree (yellow) band was from the passage of Cat 4 Hurricane Emily

http://www.moreweather.com/tropics/2005/Emily/

These strong storms churn up cooler water from below...

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phantom power

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Sun Jul-23-06 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #7

10. Except when there's just more warm water underneath. ugh.

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jpak

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Sun Jul-23-06 03:54 PM
Response to Reply #10

11. Actually, it warms from the surface down

and quite rapidly this time of year...

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Javaman

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Mon Jul-24-06 12:06 PM
Response to Reply #2

13. Okay, I'm a bit worried now....

:scared:

I live in austin, I'm waiting for that cat 4 or 5 to hit the coast and plow into us at a strong cat 1. :(

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phantom power

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Mon Jul-24-06 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #13

14. I have to believe that the next Gulf hurricane will be a real lulu.

There's just so much heat energy building up. I assume this period of upper level wind shear can't last forever.

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NotGivingUp

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Sun Jul-23-06 03:17 PM
Response to Original message

3. Where did you get the temp map from?

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phantom power

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Sun Jul-23-06 03:18 PM
Response to Reply #3

4. Here:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

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NotGivingUp

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Sun Jul-23-06 03:26 PM
Response to Reply #4

8. Thanks!

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phantom power

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Sun Jul-23-06 03:19 PM
Response to Original message

5. Another interesting comparison: Tropical cyclone heat potential

Current:

Last Year:

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gulfcoastliberal

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Sun Jul-23-06 06:08 PM
Response to Original message

12. Just checked enhanced IR satellite:

Lots of convection lately.

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sabbat hunter

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Mon Jul-24-06 03:53 PM
Response to Reply #12

15. that blob of convection

if it stays off shore it might become a depression. but right now there is no surface low, just an upper level low.

for tropical development you need a low at the surface with hight pressure aloft.

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