Trends in Renewable US Electricity Generation Over the Last 14 Years.

Renewable energy in the EIA data at which I have been looking generally lumps the non-hydro renewables under a single heading "biomass/other." This has been unsatisfying for establishing real trends since the various types of renewable energy we discuss here, solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal vary so widely in availability, cost, and scale.

Recently I came across data on the EIA website that gives a more detailed picture of the trends in renewable energy and I thought I would discuss the trends we have seen in the last 14 years.

The data is here: http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/epmxlfile1_1_a.xls

Electrical energy demand increased from 1992 to 2005 by 30.9% overall.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/tablees1a.html

This of course does not mean that conservation is a failure, since the situation may have been far worse without conservation. Some of the shift may represent energy demand shifted from other quarters to the electric sphere. Some of the increase also derives from other effects, especially things like the introduction of the personal computer and other new electronic devices, like cell phones and video games, all of which add up.

I have crunched the numbers a bit, and identified the following information:

The non hydro renewable portion has more or less kept up it's share of the electrical generation, but still remains in percentage terms, a very small fraction of the electrical generation in this country. In fact the portion of electrical energy produced by renewables has decreased slightly since 1992, 1992 being the year in which renewables produced their maximum percentage of total US electrical energy demand, 2.39%. The year in this period during which renewables were minimized was 2001, when renewables accounted for 2.01% of the electricity. In the most recent completed year, 2005, renewables represented 2.28% of electrical energy, and have almost recovered the position in which they were in 1992.

It is interesting to break the matter down into individual types of renewable energy.

Wood:: The only form of renewable energy that has represented an average greater than 1% of total US energy demand in this period is wood fired electricity. It has averaged 1.04% of renewable energy since 1992, 1992 also being the year for which its contribution was maximized, at 1.18% of overall energy. In 2005 that percentage was 0.94%.

Waste: Whether this is truly a "renewable" form of energy is questionable, since much of our waste -plastic is petroleum based, but there is certainly plenty of garbage to burn. This is the second largest form of energy included in the renewable category. It's average in percentage terms is 0.60% of overall US electrical energy generation. In 1992 the percentage was 0.58% and the maximal contribution was in 1997 when it produced 0.62% of US electrical energy generation.

Geothermal: The use of geothermal energy in the United States as a percentage of overall energy is declining. The average use over the 1992-2005 period in percentage terms was 0.41% of overall US electrical energy generation. The year it's percentage was maximized was 1993, when it produced 0.53% In 2005, it produced 0.37%, about the same percentage it has produced since 1999.

Solar: Solar energy in my perception generates the most discussion here in the DU E&E forum which I find astounding, since it is by far the most trivial form of electrical generation - at least grid based - there is. The average amount of solar energy in percentage terms has remained nearly constant over the 1992 to 2005 period, where the average contribution is 0.014% of total US electrical energy production. It has not varied by more than 0.001% in any single year.. The highest years in this period were 1994-1998, when solar electricity represent 0.015% of total electrical energy production. The lowest year was 2005, when it represented 0.013% of electrical energy production.

Wind: Wind is still a small form of energy but in terms of growth in percentage terms, it is by far the most promising form of renewable energy. The average production of renewable electricity from wind over the 1992-2005 period was 0.170% of electrical energy but the highest year was 2005, when it represented 0.36% of total US electrical energy production. The lowest year was 1998 when it represented 0.08% of electrical energy, slightly lower than 1992, when it was 0.09% of electrical energy produced in the United States.

Thus the ability of renewables to maintain a percentage of around 2-3% of the growing total electrical energy produced in the United States over the last 14 years is mostly attributable to the growth of wind power, a form of energy that we all hope will continue to provide larger and larger percentages of our electrical energy demand. Geothermal production is not keeping pace with electrical demand, solar is stagnant, wood is slightly declining and garbage burning remains constant.

For reference here are the other forms of energy and their average percentages for electrical generation over this period:

Coal: 51.4%. Petroleum liquids: 2.7%. Natural Gas: 15.4% Petroleum Coke: 0.4%. Nuclear: 19.6% Hydroelectric 8.0%.

My view is that renewables have the best shot at displacing natural gas and maybe petroleum. They have some ways to go before accomplishing that.

I have it at work, I'll read it there--sounds fascinatin!

Table 1.1.A. Net Generation by Other Renewables: Total (All Sectors), 1992 through April 2006
(Thousand Megawatthours)
Period Wood<1> Waste<2> Geothermal Solar Wind Total
1992 36,529 17,816 16,138 400 2,888 73,770
1993 37,623 18,333 16,789 462 3,006 76,213
1994 37,937 19,129 15,535 487 3,447 76,535
1995 36,521 20,405 13,378 497 3,164 73,965
1996 36,800 20,911 14,329 521 3,234 75,796
1997 36,948 21,709 14,726 511 3,288 77,183
1998 36,338 22,448 14,774 502 3,026 77,088
1999 37,041 22,572 14,827 495 4,488 79,423
2000 37,595 23,131 14,093 493 5,593 80,906
2001 35,200 21,765 13,741 543 6,737 77,985
2002 38,665 22,857 14,491 555 10,354 86,922
2003 37,529 23,736 14,424 534 11,187 87,410
2004
January 3,252 1,886 1,295 13 999 7,445
February 2,987 1,812 1,214 11 1,022 7,045
March 3,083 1,935 1,241 53 1,291 7,603
April 3,047 1,926 1,161 57 1,295 7,486
May 2,940 2,035 1,208 82 1,702 7,966
June 3,050 1,981 1,225 88 1,397 7,741
July 3,349 2,056 1,278 82 1,164 7,930
August 3,249 2,033 1,257 73 1,051 7,662
September 3,064 1,874 1,188 61 1,090 7,276
October 3,209 1,901 1,276 34 1,029 7,449
November 3,051 1,896 1,212 15 932 7,107
December 3,296 1,967 1,256 8 1,172 7,699
Total 37,576 23,302 14,811 575 14,144 90,408
2005
January 3,273 1,998 1,288 8 899 7,467
February 2,974 1,775 1,098 13 783 6,643
March 3,164 1,980 1,245 37 1,235 7,661
April 2,964 1,909 1,227 57 1,408 7,564
May 3,021 2,089 1,301 81 1,494 7,985
June 3,068 2,068 1,284 87 1,539 8,047
July 3,332 2,116 1,313 71 1,171 8,002
August 3,327 2,077 1,290 75 918 7,688
September 3,139 1,971 1,258 60 1,275 7,704
October 3,158 1,912 1,284 37 1,256 7,647
November 3,147 1,991 1,254 12 1,363 7,768
December 3,261 2,112 1,282 2 1,257 7,914
Total 37,828 23,997 15,124 541 14,597 92,088
2006
January 3,406 2,063 1,255 12 1,619 8,355
February 3,013 1,845 1,126 19 1,368 7,371
March 3,160 1,959 1,292 32 1,999 8,442
April 2,996 2,008 1,148 52 2,064 8,269
Total 12,575 7,875 4,820 115 7,051 32,436
Year-to-Date
2004 12,368 7,559 4,911 133 4,607 29,579
2005 12,375 7,662 4,858 115 4,325 29,335
2006 12,575 7,875 4,820 115 7,051 32,436
Rolling 12 Months Ending in April
2005 37,584 23,405 14,757 557 13,861 90,164
2006 38,028 24,209 15,087 541 17,323 95,189
<1> Wood, black liquor, and other wood waste.
<2> Municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, tires, agriculture byproducts, and other biomass.
Notes: • See Glossary for definitions. • Values for 2004 and prior years are final. Values for 2005 and 2006 are estimated based on a sample; they are preliminary data - See Technical Notes for a discussion of the sample design for the Form EIA-906 and Form EIA-920. • Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. • Due to restructuring of the electric power industry, electric utilities are selling/transferring plants to the nonutility sector. This affects comparisons of current and historical data.
Sources: Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-906, "Power Plant Report;" Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-920 "Combined Heat and Power Plant Report;" and predecessor forms.