Gordon Brown is about to publish a ground-breaking study which will warn the world that it faces paying multi-trillion pound economic costs if it does not move urgently to act on climate change. The study, led by Sir Nicholas Stern, a former World Bank economist, is a stark warning to world leaders, especially George Bush, that the climate change issue cannot be stalled by claiming economic competitiveness will be damaged by taking action now.
The report, regarded by experts as the most authoritative assessment yet of the costs of climate change, will argue that the developed economies, led by the US, face far higher costs if they do not act. ir Nicholas gave a private briefing on his review to a meeting of leaders of the world's 20 most polluting nations in Mexico yesterday. The report is said to be framed so that the Bush administration recognises it will not cost the earth to solve climate change, but will cost the earth literally and financially if it does not. Speaking on the opening day of the conference Margaret Beckett, the foreign secretary, said: "It is sound economic sense to respond to climate change and economic nonsense not to."
A government source said the purpose of the Stern report was to make the economics of climate change as incontrovertible as the science. The review will argue that climate change will affect those in the poorest countries who are least able to adapt to the changes. Africa is likely to be severely affected. Some estimates indicate falls of agriculture yields in Africa of up to 12% by 2080, potentially increasing the number of people at risk of hunger by tens of millions.
The report spells out the extra costs of dealing with longer and stronger heatwaves, droughts, rainfall and floods that are already being observed and are expected to become more extreme. Other economic costs include greater harvest losses, a rise in the spread of tropical diseases, greater soil erosion and less certainty in energy supplies.
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