Living in a state of exponential delusion

4dsc

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sat Feb-10-07 09:27 AM
Original message

Living in a state of exponential delusion

Interesting article.. Very good questions too. I have a good laugh when I hear planners or others talking about the future without taking into account the coming oil crisis..

WHY IS it that our planners and politicians understand so little of basic mathematics and its implications? Let me explain how serious the consequences of not understanding some basic mathematical concepts can be. Let us take economic growth, the basic premise of conventional economics, and the assumption that without it our economic model falls apart. It is important that we understand the implications and consequences of this assumption. To understand the implications, we need to understand the underlying exponential mathematics.

Exponential growth refers to a situation where there is constant growth. It doesn’t matter what the rate of growth is, only that it is constant. For example, our current economic strategy is aimed at achieving 6% growth over a sustained period of time. What 6% growth means is that we will be doubling the size of our economy in roughly the next 11 years.

Yes, at this rate of growth we will double our gross domestic product, which means we will double what we produce. In order to double what we produce, we will need to double what goes into what we produce.

This includes raw materials and crucially, energy. So, roughly speaking, in the next 11 years we are going to need to double the amount of energy we are currently consuming.

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/topstories.aspx?ID=BD4A377945

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

phantom power

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sat Feb-10-07 10:45 AM
Response to Original message

1. Why do you hate America?

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

bananas

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sat Feb-10-07 11:04 AM
Response to Original message

2. That's what we need this for

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

niceypoo

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sat Feb-10-07 11:11 AM
Response to Original message

3. The US is well on the road to becoming an economic and scientific backwater

This left right thing makes our country totally irrational. Our style of government has outlived its usefulness. Left vs Right is the most dysfunctional way possible to run a government. The US is headed for a big fall in many ways and it isnt necessarily a bad thing. I feel sorry for Americans that live in the world fifty years from now because of the mess and legacy that we are leaving them in our mindless, selfish quest for the "American dream."

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

NNadir

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sat Feb-10-07 11:22 AM
Response to Original message

4. Well we can rely on the exponential growth of renewable energy.

Every year the amount of renewable energy increases by a brazillion percent. Exponential.

By the way, there is a very mathematically illiterate statement in the article, which is this one:

"This includes raw materials and crucially, energy. So, roughly speaking, in the next 11 years we are going to need to double the amount of energy we are currently consuming."

That is simply not true.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

4dsc

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sat Feb-10-07 11:38 AM
Response to Reply #4

5. going from a little to a little more

Your assessment that "Every year the amount of renewable energy increases by a brazillion percent. Exponential." is very misleading.. Because if you take to its logical conclusion, we should be able to use nothing but renewables(another misnomer) by what year?? Soun'd like next year going at a brazillion percent.. But that's not the case.. In the averall scheem of things, renewable account for very little of our overall energy needs right now and will not figure into future eneryg needs on a large scale basis either..

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

IDemo

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sat Feb-10-07 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #5

6. I think he just left out the /sarcasm tag.. n/t

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

NNadir

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Sat Feb-10-07 11:57 AM
Response to Reply #5

7. You will note that my remark was not as misleading as sarcastic.

I have been hearing about the exponential growth of solar energy for many decades.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top

DU AdBot (1000+ posts)

Mon Apr 29th 2024, 03:49 PM
Response to Original message

Advertisements [?]

Top

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.