IEA Revises Forecasts Yet Again, Cuts 2007 Non-OPEC Oil Production Numbers In Half - RI

PARIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- If we ever needed reminding of the problem of making forecasts about crude oil and products we only need think of three tiny letters, I, E and A. The International Energy Agency (IEA), so frowned upon in 2004 and 2005 for failing to foresee the sharp rise in demand, has this week decided that some of its previous predictions were in fact erroneous.

The IEA has decided that non-OPEC output will in fact be some 1.1 million barrels short of what it was previously predicting in 2007. That is a 50% reduction from its previous 2.2 million barrel increase. Now, you might think this is not such a big deal being that we consume around 84.5 million barrels per day. But the IEA only made this forecast last July. It is not like the IEA do not have access to reams of information most mere mortals would love to get their hands on, they have loads of it.

But in 2005 they also predicted a near 2 million barrel increase in non-OPEC output. Then over the course of the year they consistently revised the figure, downwards of course. By the end of 2005 they had decided that rather than 2 million barrels extra per day there was in fact, well, no barrels extra per day. As if to be rather contrary one must also ask if non-OPEC output is to be so much lower, then how do we account for the increase in Russian supply? The Russians are now probably the world’s largest producer of barrels of oil equivalent running at 9.85 million barrels per day, up 4.3% from the same time last year.

It does appear that Saudi Arabia is sticking, mostly, to the cuts OPEC has stipulated, which makes Russia number one producer on the block at the moment, as it is bound by no such agreement. However one must remember that the lack of complex refining capacity in the world means that the extra crude Saudi had available to the market was usually the crude no one wanted to buy. But still, Russia’s power is increasing. If non-OPEC supply growth is to fall, but Russia’s share is increasing or at least steady, then this only lends power to the mighty fist of Gazprom, sorry, the Kremlin.

EDIT

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=28843

as in Energy Dis-information Agency?

Saudi Arabia Can Raise Oil Output by 75%, IEA Says (Update1)

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, will be able to increase oil production by 75 percent through 2030, satisfying about a sixth of global demand, the International Energy Agency said.

The Saudis will pump 18.2 million barrels a day by 2030, up from 10.4 million in 2004, the IEA said. If Saudi Arabia invests 20 percent less than the $141 billion the agency says is necessary, it would pump 14.1 million barrels a day, 23 percent less.

``There is considerable potential to raise output in the coming decades given the country's large proven reserves, even without any reserve additions,'' the IEA said in its 2005 World Energy Outlook published today. ``Saudi Arabia's willingness and ability to invest in expanding and maintaining oil-production capacity will be a major determinant of future'' energy prices.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001099&sid=agIb7ByeRijs&refer=energy

"Saudi Arabia Can Raise Oil Output By 75%"

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

they can create a tidal power station at the former Ghawar field. Oh wait.....